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    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2017 edited
     
    Posted By: djhWhat I don't understand is that I can see the logic of the UK government position and its clear that there'll be major disruption from the DUP if they did attempt to give Eire what it's asking for. The most likely result in that case would be that the UK would crash out of the EU with no deal at all and a very hard border indeed as a result. So is there some sense I'm missing in the Irish position or are they really pointing a gun at their own foot and threatening to pull the trigger?

    The DUP are aware that if they create major disruption the Government could fall, which could result in a Labour Government prepared to stay in the Customs Union and Single Market - an outcome that would also suit Eire. So maybe the Irish don't think they're running much of a risk when there aren't yet any workable ideas for an invisible border.
  1.  
    "I don't understand the Irish government's position at the moment. They're saying they won't allow talks to proceed unless the UK guarantee an open border, whilst the Brits say nothing can be finalised until everything is, and the DUP say no border between NI and Britain."

    The Irish governments position is one that has been set out for them by the EU Commission(Germany)
    i.e No break away independent states + no borders between member states = Federal United States of Europe

    The UK left the EU so that the European Army could be created without opposition
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2017 edited
     
    Posted By: bot de pailleThe Irish governments position is one that has been set out for them by the EU Commission(Germany)
    i.e No break away independent states + no borders between member states = Federal United States of Europe

    I don't understand that at all. What do you mean by 'no independent states' and how is 'no borders between member states' relevant? Do you have a source for the EU Commission setting this out, thanks?
    • CommentAuthorgyrogear
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2017
     
    Perhaps the neat demographic way to treat this problem is simply to repatriate the Scots protestants whose ancestors were moved to NI in the first place,

    (quoting Wiki ): "in the early 17th century Ulster Plantation. This was the colonisation of the Gaelic, Catholic province of Ulster with English-speaking Protestants from Great Britain, mostly from the Scottish Lowlands and Northern England".

    Once they've gone, let the rest of NI decide for itself, namely : create a new state, or reintegrate with the south (the status quo ante) (provided the Republic wants/will have them...)

    gg
    • CommentAuthorCWatters
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2017
     
    There are at least four conflicting positions on the border issue...

    Everyone - No hard border between Ireland and NI.
    UK Government - We (or at least England, Scotland and Wales) are leaving the customs union.
    DUP - No difference between NI and mainland UK
    EU - Stay in customs union or need hard border with NI.

    Four possible outcomes:

    EU allow a soft border (unlikely as they already see the UK as a soft border with the EU).
    UK remains in customs union.
    NI only remains in customs union, hard border between NI and UK mainland, DUP bribed to accept.
    No deal. Nightmare for importers/exporters, delays at channel ports.

    Any other options?
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2017 edited
     
    Posted By: CWattersAny other options?

    Yes - Irish reunification (still unlikely, but much less unlikely than before).

    Based on the October LucidTalk poll, 55% of the Northern Irish are for remaining in the UK, 33% for reunification.
    But in the case of a hard Brexit, 54% are in favour of remaining in the UK and 46% for reunification.
    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/brexit-impact-on-northern-ireland-could-sway-border-poll-result-survey-36261684.html https://lucidtalk.co.uk/news/239-oct-2017-tracker

    For comparison, the September 2016 LucidTalk poll found only 27% in favour of reunification.
    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/survey-majority-say-no-to-ireland-border-poll-and-yes-to-staying-in-uk-35086513.html

    And in September 2013, just 3.8% were in favour of reunification.
    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/poll-just-38-want-a-united-ireland-29584149.html

    That's a big swing.
  2.  
    Posted By: CWattersThere are at least four conflicting positions on the border issue...

    Everyone - No hard border between Ireland and NI.
    UK Government - We (or at least England, Scotland and Wales) are leaving the customs union.
    DUP - No difference between NI and mainland UK
    EU - Stay in customs union or need hard border with NI.

    Four possible outcomes:

    EU allow a soft border (unlikely as they already see the UK as a soft border with the EU).
    UK remains in customs union.
    NI only remains in customs union, hard border between NI and UK mainland, DUP bribed to accept.
    No deal. Nightmare for importers/exporters, delays at channel ports.

    Any other options?


    ROI leaves the EU therefore no border agreement needed as the 1922 travel Act still applies.

    Would make sense as over 70% of trade is with UK and ROI now pay more into EU then they receive from it.
    • CommentAuthorMike1
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2017 edited
     
    Posted By: renewablejohnWould make sense as over 70% of trade is with UK and ROI now pay more into EU then they receive from it.

    Maybe in the past, but not now; in 2015 it was 12.3% of exports and 24.9% of imports:

    World Total Exports: €111 Imports: €67

    Exports to USA: €26.2 Imports:€9.8
    Exports to Belgium: €14.5 Imports:€1.2
    Exports to Great Britain: €13.7 Imports:€16.7
    Exports to Switzerland: €6.1 Imports:€1.3
    Exports to Germany: €7.4 Imports:€5.8

    http://www.denisahern.com/some-key-statistics-on-irish-imports-and-exports/
  3.  
    Posted By: Mike1
    Posted By: renewablejohnWould make sense as over 70% of trade is with UK and ROI now pay more into EU then they receive from it.

    Maybe in the past, but not now; in 2015 it was 12.3% of exports and 24.9% of imports:

    World Total Exports: €111 Imports: €67

    Exports to USA: €26.2 Imports:€9.8
    Exports to Belgium: €14.5 Imports:€1.2
    Exports to Great Britain: €13.7 Imports:€16.7
    Exports to Switzerland: €6.1 Imports:€1.3
    Exports to Germany: €7.4 Imports:€5.8

    http://www.denisahern.com/some-key-statistics-on-irish-imports-and-exports/


    Sorry should of said Agri trade with UK.
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