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    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeSep 25th 2017 edited
     
    <blockquote><cite>Posted By: SteamyTea</cite>I recently read that, so full of hopium ...</blockquote>
    But a steady dripfeed of confirmation/support from the likes of
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/23/drop-in-wind-energy-costs-adds-pressure-for-government-rethink
    from
    http://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=15194
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeSep 25th 2017 edited
     
    Got be be careful with that one.
    They have signed a CfD at a lower price (guaranteed top up).
    I do not know the full details, and I personally think that we probably can build windfarms cheaper than nuclear, but that was for a 15 year contract. Maybe over 30 years the figures look different.
    There is also the point that the nuclear deal was not a very good one, so hardly the best comparison.

    Don't get me wrong, I want low carbon generation and cheap reliable storage. I just don't see it happening as fast as most of us wish.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2017
     
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/25/electric-cars-emit-50-less-greenhouse-gas-than-diesel-study-finds

    "Electric cars emit significantly less greenhouse gases over their lifetimes than diesel engines even when they are powered by the most carbon intensive energy, a new report has found.

    In Poland, which uses high volumes of coal, electric vehicles produced a quarter less emissions than diesels when put through a full lifecycle modelling study by Belgium’s VUB University.

    CO2 reductions on Europe’s cleanest grid in Sweden were a remarkable 85%, falling to around one half for countries such as the UK."

    Actually the world's relying on it getting a lot better than that, as the grid gets renewable-sourced.
    • CommentAuthorCWatters
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2017
     
    Got totally owned by a Tesla model S yesterday. Anyone want to buy me one for Christmas?
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2017
     
    Posted By: CWattersGot totally owned by a Tesla model S yesterday
    What were you in?
    •  
      CommentAuthornigel
    • CommentTimeOct 26th 2017
     
    The other big change coming is the Benefit in Kind charges for electric cars, in 2020 the charge will be 2% of the list price for BEV's with a decent range.

    The incentive for company car drivers to switch is going to be enormous especially when you consider that a diesel will have a charge of up 37%.

    So a £60k BEV car is going to be taxable on £1200 per annum and a similarly priced high powered diesel Range Rover will be charged at £22,000 per annum.

    I think Range Rover Sport sales are going to take a hit which wont be a bad thing at all.
    • CommentAuthorqeipl
    • CommentTimeOct 27th 2017
     
    Having installed solar panels earlier this year I was producing significantly more electricity than I was using so I took the plunge and got an EV (Kia Soul) on a business lease. I liked it on the test drive in Dundee but now, one month and 1,000 miles in, I absolutely love it. So much nicer to drive than an ICE vehicle and almost zero fuel cost.

    All of the negative points that are being made about electricity production, grid management, battery minerals mining, etc. are valid but I have no doubt that EVs are the immediate future for cars and LGVs simply because the cost of ownership will very soon be lower than ICE vehicles and the driving experience is so much better.
    • CommentAuthortony
    • CommentTimeOct 27th 2017
     
    +1
  1.  
    If this comes to fruition, EVs will be even more popular.

    https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/press/2017_10/pr0301.htm
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeOct 27th 2017
     
    Posted By: qeiplSo much nicer to drive than an ICE vehicle

    Can you explain what it is you like so much? If you've been used to a manual shift car, I can understand that not having gears is nice, but I've already got that with an automatic shift ICE, so I'm wondering what else I'm missing.
    • CommentAuthorMikC
    • CommentTimeOct 27th 2017 edited
     
    Low noise. Peak torque from zero rpm. Faster and smoother response throttle. Obviously it depends on what you are comparing, but Electric drive has so many benefits over ICE's its a no brainer.
  2.  
    It still comes down to economics for me, I always drive older cars at the bottom of the depreciation curve but then I'm good at repairing issues when they crop up.

    EV's are just too expensive for me to justify saving a small amount in running costs for the time being...
  3.  
    Posted By: VictorianecoIt still comes down to economics for me, I always drive older cars at the bottom of the depreciation curve but then I'm good at repairing issues when they crop up.

    EV's are just too expensive for me to justify saving a small amount in running costs for the time being...

    +1 says me - lumping around in a 23 year old LWB land rover that, when I checked a couple of months ago was returning 32 mpg with my driving profile. (TDI engine)
  4.  
    Electric Cars are coming without a doubt - battery range issues or not.
    However, it will take time, quite a bit of time. 3 Things are needed
    a) Manunfacturing capacity for the sheer number of cars needed to make a significant difference. We are talking of tens of millions a year, for a number of years. And we are a long, long way off that.
    b) Battery range - the Teslas at 300 miles are about there. I dont see the 100 mile range cars as being adequate for the mass market (Personal view)
    c) Charging infrastructure & methods. Workplace charging, and some way for people who dont have convenient off street parking (AKA a drive) to charge up. Replacing the 5 minute fill-up every couple of weeks will be a challenge to create something suitably convenient

    Personally, I reckon we are looking at 2030 before we see really significant numbers (>25%)
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeOct 28th 2017 edited
     
    Posted By: PeterStarckIf this comes to fruition, EVs will be even more popular.
    Just had a look at the energy density here:
    http://www.scib.jp/en/product/cell.htm

    220 Wh/l (edit, I misread, 202 Wh/l, so worse)

    Gasolene is 9.4 kWh/l (ish) 46 times greater.

    I don't see it as a major advance, though the charging times look reasonable.

    I am with dimengineer, they are a long way off until they are the power source of choice.
  5.  
    If someone were to make a DIY kit I'd be happy to gut my car and install the gubbins. Can't be that much surely?
    • CommentAuthortony
    • CommentTimeOct 28th 2017 edited
     
    Works best in a lightweight specially designed vehicle with thinner tyres and electric drive train.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeOct 28th 2017
     
    So does an ICE when it comes to fuel usage.
  6.  
    Posted By: nigelThe other big change coming is the Benefit in Kind charges for electric cars, in 2020 the charge will be 2% of the list price for BEV's with a decent range.

    The incentive for company car drivers to switch is going to be enormous especially when you consider that a diesel will have a charge of up 37%.

    So a £60k BEV car is going to be taxable on £1200 per annum and a similarly priced high powered diesel Range Rover will be charged at £22,000 per annum.

    I think Range Rover Sport sales are going to take a hit which wont be a bad thing at all.


    Unfortunately they are on to this. My neighbours have an enormous hybrid XC90 purely to avoid company car tax. The battery is never charged, it is used as ballast. Other hybrid SUVs are available.
    To be fair, it does better mileage than my old diesel heap.

    Edit to add: low-tax PHEV Range Rover now announced http://www.nextgreencar.com/news/8195/land-rover-launches-phev-lineup/
    • CommentAuthorGarethC
    • CommentTimeOct 29th 2017 edited
     
    Posted By: dimengineerElectric Cars are coming without a doubt - battery range issues or not.
    However, it will take time, quite a bit of time. 3 Things are needed
    a) Manunfacturing capacity for the sheer number of cars needed to make a significant difference. We are talking of tens of millions a year, for a number of years. And we are a long, long way off that.
    b) Battery range - the Teslas at 300 miles are about there. I dont see the 100 mile range cars as being adequate for the mass market (Personal view)
    c) Charging infrastructure & methods. Workplace charging, and some way for people who dont have convenient off street parking (AKA a drive) to charge up. Replacing the 5 minute fill-up every couple of weeks will be a challenge to create something suitably convenient

    Personally, I reckon we are looking at 2030 before we see really significant numbers (>25%)


    I assume you mean 25% of total cars on road, rather than sales? Maybe you're right, but I hope we might do a bit better than that. Recent progress on EV range and cost has been much faster than I anticipated (Zoe and new Leaf too to an extent). Maybe we'll be similarly pleasantly surprised in coming years. I still suspect PHEV will be the biggest part of the story for several years.

    On the problem of charging infrastructure, I wonder if smart charging of a certain type would help. In my head, it should be possible, via software, for EVs to know when the grid was under strain. Then, an EV with just 20% might continue to charge, but one already 70% charged (if it had 250-300 miles range when full, so 70% of that would still do for 95% of journeys) would automatically wait until capacity were available (unless overridden as the driver were planning a long drive). Has analysis of that been undertaken anywhere? Once ranges are 200 miles or so as standard, most charges will just be "top ups" from 90% (since 90% of daily journeys are less than 20 miles). I. E. 90% of EVs could get away without being recharged for several days in a row, if grid capacity were under pressure, without it being a problem for the drivers.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeOct 29th 2017 edited
     
    It should be possible, with a fairly basic algorithm, to compare the state of charge and the normal usage pattern of a vehicle, along with the need to shed load on the grid, to set up charging patterns.
    There will be times when this fails for an individual user i.e. stranded drunk daughter, ill parent.

    One of the big expenses will be fitting charging points, it is a lot of engineering work fitting 60A or so charging points.
    We could use 10A (about the maximum possible on a 13A plug), but that would take a while to charge vehicles, circa 10 hours. But that would just shift the engineering back up the line, not get rid of it.

    I have, in the past, seen estimates that the National Grid needs around £120bn of investment in the next decade.
    Using simple estimates, that would be around £400/household. Not sure if that took into account EV charging infrastructure or not.
    Not a huge amount of money really, until it is asked for.
    • CommentAuthorGarethC
    • CommentTimeOct 29th 2017
     
    Hmm, but unless driving habits change, once total ranges are, say, at least 200 miles on average, 90% of the time a car won't be charged from 0% (or 20% or whatever) to 100%, they'll be charged from 80 or 90% to 100%. Say you need a 60kWh battery to provide 200 miles range, you'll be looking at just 6-12kWh of top up at a time, so (IF you've got a driveway, or you can charge at work), a 10A charger should do for "quick enough" top ups. It's "only" where fuller, quick charges are going to be needed (e.g. On motorways and A roads) that much faster charging capacity will be essential, isn't it? But I assume all that's already been factored into the analysis...

    I live in a "villa" split into three homes. One chap's already got a Citro√ęn zero. My next door neighbour has a tesla P90 (HIS villa isn't split...). And I was wondering about the problems I'm hearing about if we all did buy EVs, then wanted to charge them at the same time. But if 9 out of 10 of us (assuming everyone in the street got them too) are only topping up say 6-12 kWh over night, then so long as the charging system was smart enough to queue the charging by priority (emptiest ones first, and not taking more than the grid can manage at a time), then a whole night should be long enough to charge all of them without the leccy demand being that crazy, shouldn't it?

    Succinct... Should have thought about that more before I started typing...
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeOct 29th 2017
     
    Posted By: SteamyTeaI have, in the past, seen estimates that the National Grid needs around £120bn of investment in the next decade.
    Using simple estimates, that would be around £400/household. Not sure if that took into account EV charging infrastructure or not.

    You mean £400/household/year I presume? i.e. £4,000 from each household in total.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 29th 2017 edited
     
    Chicken feed, in the New Unencumbered Britain - innit?

    Anyway, let's not just extrapolate the 1 (or 3) cars per household present.
    It's not just EVs, but self-driving too, that's on the way - inextricably packaged together, on same timescale.
    If the guys are ecstatic now about EV driving, same will be true of self-driving within a year or two.
    And from that follows smart car-on-demand, not owning your own (NB that doesn't mean SmartCar).

    So car charging on every driveway will barely get going before it's abandoned.

    Alternatively, a tidal wave of resentment against monopoly platforms siphoning up our personal data and selling same to marketeers, politicians and NSA. That wd include Siri-spy in every living room and smart car-on-demand system knowing where you are and what you want all the time.

    Then maybe massive autonomy might happen instead - indeed a basic Sinclair C3 or three on every driveway, autonomously charged from dirt-cheap non-grid PV/battery, with platform co-op providing the people carrier or pickup as and when needed.
    • CommentAuthormike7
    • CommentTimeOct 29th 2017
     
    Posted By: djh
    Posted By: qeiplSo much nicer to drive than an ICE vehicle

    Can you explain what it is you like so much? If you've been used to a manual shift car, I can understand that not having gears is nice, but I've already got that with an automatic shift ICE, so I'm wondering what else I'm missing.


    I took the plunge and bought a Leaf last December - £7.5k with 45000m on the clock. I too find it much more pleasant to drive (c.f. VW Touran), I think for three reasons:- The quietness and associated sense of effortlessness; the responsiveness that I think probably comes from a very short and taut drive train, and the lively acceleration at low speeds due to the torque characteristics of the electric motor. A downside is that estimated range is much reduced if travelling at motorway speed, but we don't do much of that. If we did I'd be taking a long hard look at the basis on which the new higher ranges getting quoted are determined.

    The decision to buy was greatly helped by the fact we could afford to keep the Touran - at least for the time being - and we had space to park it off road. The few miles we actually do in it work out a bit expensive per mile for insurance, depreciation and tax!
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeOct 29th 2017
     
    Posted By: fostertomIt's not just EVs, but self-driving too, that's on the way - inextricably packaged together, on same timescale.

    Well, no. That is, yes, they're both on the way, but there's actually very little connection between them, let alone 'inextricably' linked. They will both proceed at their own separate pace.

    car charging on every driveway will barely get going before it's abandoned

    I have real doubts about that as well. For houses that have drives, it makes sense to recharge cars there rather than block the roads with on-street parking or take extara land-grab to provide car charging spaces elsewhere.

    I'll grant you that for dwellings that don't have car parking adjacent to a power supply, it may make sense for self-driving cars to drive themselves to charging points elsewhere, but then the drive to and from the charging point has to be subtracted from the efficiency of the car.

    And the notion of shared cars is another separate idea that has yet to be proven in the white heat of reality. If the cars are all required at the same time, for the commute and/or for the school run, then the sharing aspect is already well-known - as in, it doesn't happen very often.

    The school run is a very obvious example of irrationality at the heart of choices. When I went to school, you either walked or cycled, or used a bus if the distance was over five miles or so. Nowadays, despite crime statistics apparently being much improved, it seems it's more usual to drive your offspring to school for anything much more than 100 yards.
    • CommentAuthorqeipl
    • CommentTimeOct 30th 2017
     
    Posted By: djh
    Posted By: qeiplSo much nicer to drive than an ICE vehicle

    Can you explain what it is you like so much? If you've been used to a manual shift car, I can understand that not having gears is nice, but I've already got that with an automatic shift ICE, so I'm wondering what else I'm missing.


    What MikC said. On single track roads (our equivalent to urban driving) the EV is far superior to any ICE (auto or manual). Stick it in B mode and you hardly ever have to touch the brake pedal: lift your foot off the throttle and it slows down sharply, almost to a stop, which is ideal for elegant use of passing places. Even on the open road it's nicer to drive. Every bit as lively for overtaking as my old BMW X3 but you don't have to think about gears and revs (or the lag while the auto box clunks into action), just put the foot to the floor and you're off.
    • CommentAuthortony
    • CommentTimeOct 30th 2017
     
    :) Well upsetting for sports cars at traffic lights too.
    • CommentAuthorqeipl
    • CommentTimeOct 30th 2017
     
    Posted By: VictorianecoIt still comes down to economics for me, I always drive older cars at the bottom of the depreciation curve but then I'm good at repairing issues when they crop up.

    EV's are just too expensive for me to justify saving a small amount in running costs for the time being...


    It makes no sense to buy an EV at the moment. The technology is advancing so quickly that my 120 mile (reliable) range will be obsolete next year. But the lease deal that I got is only £200/month. Subtract fuel, maintenance and depreciation costs and this compares very favourably with my previous vehicles which are typically 10 year old diesels which cost c.£4k - £5k.
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