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			<title>Green Building Forum - More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Jul 2024 08:28:35 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>fostertom</author>
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			<![CDATA[<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/23/uk-may-need-new-gas-fired-power-stations-to-decarbonise-grid" target="_self" rel="nofollow">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/23/uk-may-need-new-gas-fired-power-stations-to-decarbonise-grid</a><br />A report by an engineer group, which may possibly have a finger in the fossil pie, or just conservative.<br /><br />Not a mention, in the article, of the growth of battery storage which, like the growth of renewable generation in the last two decades, is going much faster than even the optimists imagined. Nor of the prospect of the electric vehicle fleet equiped to discharge as well as charge, as grid storage. The latter promises to destroy the case for nuclear as baseload - stop building now!]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Jul 2024 20:14:40 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>philedge</author>
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			<![CDATA[If we have a prolonged calm spell in the winter are we going to be able to charge all the storage without gas??]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Jul 2024 23:45:21 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>fostertom</author>
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			<![CDATA[Is that what the nukes are for then? For when renewables stop completely? Does that actually happen - windless winter North Sea -for how long?]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Jul 2024 18:50:17 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>philedge</author>
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			<![CDATA[Climate change is also known as climate unpredictability so probably prudent to assume we can't 100% rely on the wind to blow continuously.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Jul 2024 22:44:52 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>fostertom</author>
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			<![CDATA[Can the necessary storage be feasibly provided, calculated on climate data (frequency/duration/season of still winds) incl reliable allowance for climate change? I doubt the answer is 'must have more gas'.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jul 2024 12:00:28 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>djh</author>
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			<![CDATA[You might find the answers in a rather old overview <a href="https://www.r-e-a.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Energy-Storage-FINAL6.pdf" target="_self" rel="nofollow">https://www.r-e-a.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Energy-Storage-FINAL6.pdf</a> or an up to date view - "The Royal Society has produced a report (PDF) that addresses the issues and a briefing document (PDF) summarising the findings. Supplementary information (PDF) for the report is also available." <a href="https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/projects/low-carbon-energy-programme/large-scale-electricity-storage/" target="_self" rel="nofollow">https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/projects/low-carbon-energy-programme/large-scale-electricity-storage/</a>]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jul 2024 13:36:16 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>fostertom</author>
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			<![CDATA[Thanks Dave, very helpful. No potted answers, I'll have to read it all, like you keep telling me. Still, no one mentions the prospect of the electric vehicle fleet equiped to discharge as well as charge, as grid storage. I know that's not viable yet but seems only a case of manufacturers' Betamax vs VHS doubt.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jul 2024 14:26:58 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>Peter_in_Hungary</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: fostertom</cite>Still, no one mentions the prospect of the electric vehicle fleet equiped to discharge as well as charge, as grid storage</blockquote><br />No thank you !<br />I charge my EV about once a week over night, approx 20% up to 80% with to 100% if a long trip is planned. Planning the charging times was one of the lifestyle changes going to an EV. I don't want to be plugging in every night just so that the grid can nick my energy! And I'm yet unsure of the reduction in battery life of the extra cycles.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jul 2024 15:48:01 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>djh</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: Peter_in_Hungary</cite><blockquote ><cite >Posted By: fostertom</cite>Still, no one mentions the prospect of the electric vehicle fleet equiped to discharge as well as charge, as grid storage</blockquote><br />No thank you !</blockquote>Agreed. I'll keep an open mind and am open to persuasion, but as things stand I have the same problem as PiH. Also car batteries don't solve the hard problem - long windless periods in winter.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Jul 2024 12:07:16 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>Artiglio</author>
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			<![CDATA[I’d suggest the issue with discharging from car to grid is that currently its something discussed by the enthusiast ( who by and large come to the conclusions above) but when it comes that electric vehicles are the norm the vast majority are going to be owned by those that want a car and not an integral part of the nations power system, people may accept default settings ( no doubt set for vehicle to grid as and when the powers that be deem fit) but they’ll soon be changing those when they find the vehicle doesn’t have the charge they require one morning. <br /><br />As for the OP , surely to go for full reliance on an as yet unproven storage and renewable generation is pure folly, there needs to be a reasonable degree of on demand generation, and personally i’d rather see that from gas than  widescale biomass in the mannr of such generation we currently have. The number of lorries driving to and from the  wood chip generator at Sandwich is incredible , the original premise that the timber would come from managed woodland in the south east would seem to be pure fantasy. <br /><br />Plus offshoring environmental damage for the production of vast amounts of battery storage is surely hypocritical in the extreme and only fudges our green credentials as a nation. ( how many times has plastic waste we’ve conveniently exported turned up in far flung places and disposed of irresponsibly).]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Jul 2024 11:06:28 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>WillInAberdeen</author>
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			<![CDATA[Aiui, an EV draws about 20kW from its battery while cruising, rising to 100kW+ for fast acceleration.<br /><br />But most homes could only export 3.6kW for V2G, with peaks around 7kW including their own consumption.<br /><br />So the thermal load on the battery from V2G is pretty negligible compared to what it is normally designed to do. So it's not going to reduce the lifetime of the battery. This was the finding from the OVO V2G trials.<br /><br />The premise of any battery is you draw from it while the price is high (often 4pm-8pm) and recharge it when the price is low (often overnight). So you aren't going to find it is flat in the morning, that's the point of maximum charge.<br /><br /> If it discharged say 4kW x 4h during the peak time (= 16kWh = 50 miles of range) then that might or might not consume a meaningful amount of the vehicle’s range between 4-8pm (depending if it is a 100 mile or 300 mile vehicle) but you could programme it not to do V2G when below say 60% charge if that matters to you.<br /><br /><br />So no practical problem with V2G, but is it financially worthwhile? At current prices, there is about 10p wholesale difference between highest and lowest daily price, so discharging that 16kWh would earn £1.60/d to be split between the household and the energy company. Maybe a couple of £100 a year off your bill, nice, but not enough £ for the whole country to rush out to do it.<br /><br /><br />Just how it seems to me at the moment, who knows what may change.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Jul 2024 12:41:23 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>Peter_in_Hungary</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: WillInAberdeen</cite>Aiui, an EV draws about 20kW from its battery while cruising, rising to 100kW+ for fast acceleration.</blockquote><br />My EV runs at about 12.6kWh/100km average. On a 100km each way trip that I regularly do I get about 12kWh/100 on the round trip (more there, less coming home) and it goes up to 13 if the AC is on. (mostly A roads at about 80 - 90 kmh<br />The manufactures figures are 14.6kWh/100Km<br /><br />My PV is on annual reconciliation, for new contracts for PV, if you get grant support, its monthly reconciliation otherwise without PV you can get a lower rate for EV charging (similar to E7 and alike) so unless the billing changes drastically there is no incentive to do V2G - but that's over here.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Jul 2024 16:20:41 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>djh</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: WillInAberdeen</cite>So no practical problem with V2G</blockquote>Well, except for the fact that PiH only plugs his car in once a week and mine is less than that (sometimes once a month). Half of £1.60 or whatever is not going to incentivise me to go through the hassle of plugging my car in.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jul 2024 08:20:44 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>philedge</author>
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			<![CDATA[Back to the OP about generation rather than storage, just had a look at gridwatch and last December there was a time when wind was doing 4% and CCGT doing 60% of UK generation. Even if we doubled wind generation gas is still essential if we want the lights on year round. Hopefully CCS comes good.........]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jul 2024 14:14:41 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>Doubting_Thomas</author>
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			<![CDATA[Just found this website which has a really interesting section on changing the grid reliance on fossil fuels. The answer (in their manifesto) is more nuclear and a huge increase in storage:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.mygridgb.co.uk/2030grid/" target="_self" rel="nofollow">https://www.mygridgb.co.uk/2030grid/</a>]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jul 2024 17:21:09 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>djh</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: philedge</cite>Back to the OP about generation rather than storage, just had a look at gridwatch and last December there was a time when wind was doing 4% and CCGT doing 60% of UK generation. Even if we doubled wind generation gas is still essential if we want the lights on year round.</blockquote>Well, that's why the conversation turned to storage, which may be an alternative answer!]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jul 2024 21:06:45 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>philedge</author>
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			<![CDATA[I'm not sure how long the planned storage is expected to be able to power the country but my understanding is its intended to store surplus overnight electric for use the following day??? Would need colossal capacity to power the country through a few days of calm winter weather without gas, but maybe that's what is planned?? Anyone know?]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jul 2024 21:40:29 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>Mike1</author>
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			<![CDATA[It still seems short-sighted that no UK Government has put any serious cash into developing the UK's huge tidal resources.<br /><br />Edinburgh University estimated that tidal stream could generate 11.5 GW per year (11% of the UK’s current electricity demand). <a href="https://www.eng.ed.ac.uk/about/news/20211130/new-study-reveals-potential-tidal-stream-energy" target="_self" rel="nofollow">https://www.eng.ed.ac.uk/about/news/20211130/new-study-reveals-potential-tidal-stream-energy</a><br /><br />On top of that, tidal range schemes could provide at least 18 GW 'optimally' (another 17%), and theoretically (non-optimally) double that. <a href="https://hendryreview.wordpress.com/" target="_self" rel="nofollow">https://hendryreview.wordpress.com/</a><br /><br />Both would, of course, provide predictable clean generation capacity.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jul 2024 16:12:08 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>djh</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: philedge</cite>I'm not sure how long the planned storage is expected to be able to power the country but my understanding is its intended to store surplus overnight electric for use the following day??? Would need colossal capacity to power the country through a few days of calm winter weather without gas, but maybe that's what is planned?? Anyone know?</blockquote>We're talking about long-term storage. Please read the references I have already provided if you're interested.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jul 2024 16:15:43 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>djh</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: Mike1</cite>could generate 11.5 GW per year</blockquote>FWIW, the article says 11.5 GW (i.e. a power, instantaneous) rather than 11.5 GWh per year (i.e. an energy total). But yes, tidal power is important because although intermittent, it is wholly predictable and so limits the size of the associated storage needed.<br /><br />edited to correct unit]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Aug 2024 13:55:54 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>fostertom</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: Mike1</cite>no UK Government has put any serious cash into developing the UK's huge tidal resources</blockquote>Wasn't a lot spent on a 'tidal hub' in Cornwall, ready for an expected rush of tidal projects, which were never heard of again? Bit like the Cornish Space Station at Newquay airport. Steamy Tea was always on about it.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Aug 2024 19:32:05 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>Mikel</author>
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			<![CDATA[@fostertom<br /><br />It was actually called WaveHub for wave energy projects and, latterly, I think they tried to get some floating wind projects.<br /><br />I think the real problem with both tidal and wave energy projects is that the resources are not that huge and hence not economic. Neither the Severn estuary or Swansea bay tidal pool projects have got going.<br /><br />However, the Pentland Firth tidal turbine is, I believe, functioning.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Aug 2024 20:15:06 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>djh</author>
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			<![CDATA[There's an interesting review at <a href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/renewables/the-mystery-of-the-uks-untapped-tidal-power/" target="_self" rel="nofollow">https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/renewables/the-mystery-of-the-uks-untapped-tidal-power/</a> that includes the following graph of "Proposed tidal range projects, compared with new Hinkley Point power plant" (note that tidal range generally means barrage, whereas tidal strem is different.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Aug 2024 20:48:10 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>fostertom</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: djh</cite>Half of £1.60 or whatever is not going to incentivise me to go through the hassle of plugging my car in</blockquote>Stored electricity's going to be extremely valuable - if it happens 'retail', the incentives/tarrifs will look nothing like the present regime. Will have to be made worthwhile, in the view of thought leaders such as the hon gents here present.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Aug 2024 22:42:26 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>WillInAberdeen</author>
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			<![CDATA[Those power numbers (from the tidal trade lobby group) are a bit disingenuous because they are 'peak' power which is only reached intermittently, as with other renewables. <br /><br />The Hendry review found that seven lagoons (with a total nameplate capacity of 18GW) would actually only produce 30 TWh/y, so an averaged output of 30TWh/8760h = 3.4GW, about the same as Hinckley C, but at twice the cost.<br /><br />That's a small fraction of projected UK energy demand (30-60 GW) so it seems that tidal is nice to have, but not a game changer either way. The big hitters will be wind and solar, where we have 100s of GW potential.<br /><br /><br />The Swansea lagoon is still progressing, but under new management and as part of an industrial/housebuilding development which might provide cash flow to pay for the lagoon.<br /><br /><br /><br />Batteries - if we agree we won't bother to plug in for a slice of £1.60, question is: how many £ world utility-scale batteries bother to plug in for? I suspect they will be keener than that, and so dampen out the price swings to below that level.<br /><br /><br /><br />OP:   The national grid FES have been published for 2024. The reason for the new gas stations seems to be<br />1) to plug the gap in the delayed new nuclear programme <br />2) gas is quickly becoming peak-shaving power, rather than baseload - that needs a different kind of gas station, that can breakeven on very short run times.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
		<link>https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=18166&amp;Focus=306385#Comment_306385</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Aug 2024 07:34:17 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>fostertom</author>
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			<![CDATA[Remember CHP (combined heat and power?) - every house was going to have one to replace its boiler!]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
		<link>https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=18166&amp;Focus=306391#Comment_306391</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Aug 2024 13:01:17 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>Mike1</author>
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			<![CDATA[<blockquote ><cite >Posted By: WillInAberdeen</cite>The Hendry review found that seven lagoons (with a total nameplate capacity of 18GW) would actually only produce 30 TWh/y, so an averaged output of 30TWh/8760h = 3.4GW, about the same as Hinckley C, but at twice the cost.</blockquote><br />That wasn't Hendry's cost forecast:]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
		<link>https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=18166&amp;Focus=306392#Comment_306392</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Aug 2024 13:09:09 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>Mike1</author>
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			<![CDATA[BTW, thanks to inflation, the Hinkly C Strike Price is currently £124.65 /MWh:<br /><br /><a href="https://cfd.lowcarboncontracts.uk/cfd-register/register/NUC-HPC-198/" target="_self" rel="nofollow">https://cfd.lowcarboncontracts.uk/cfd-register/register/NUC-HPC-198/</a><br /><br />Not exactly cheap, but at least it does include the future decommissioning cost.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
		<link>https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=18166&amp;Focus=306395#Comment_306395</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Aug 2024 00:37:28 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>WillInAberdeen</author>
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			<![CDATA[Hendry review, page 17:<br /><br />Quote<br /><br />"Table 2<br /><br />Capacity GW : 17.9<br />Capex £bn :  54.8<br />Annual export power TWh:  30.0<br />"<br />End quote. I can't format it the same here. <br /><br />The £54.8bn capex cost is roughly twice what HPC was costed at, at that time on like -for-like basis. HPC's cost has gone up with construction inflation since then, but so has the cost of all civils projects, including the barrages. (And HS2!)<br /><br /><br />The bar chart screenshot above, is based instead on a hypothetical CFD deal, that Hendry proposed the govt might offer to buy all the power from barrages for 60 years. This looks attractive (when compared to the 35 year deal for HPC) because the 25 extra years of guaranteed CFD income would offset the extra capital cost of the barrages. However the govt flat refused to offer them such a good deal.<br /><br />The bar chart also includes large "cost reductions" (dotted lines) which Hendry proposed could somehow be made to the barrage designs, while acknowledging this is speculative and costs might turn out much greater once the the first pathfinder project was built.<br /><br /><br />I've no objection to tidal power, even at high prices, it's good to have eggs in many baskets. But the main point for me is that the 7 potential sites only amounted to 30TWh (5-10% of UK energy needs). Nice, but not the silver bullet  that the previous developer was claiming.]]>
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		<title>More gas powered generators - honestly!</title>
		<link>https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=18166&amp;Focus=306396#Comment_306396</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Aug 2024 00:49:50 +0100</pubDate>
		<author>WillInAberdeen</author>
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			<![CDATA[Govt"s response to Hendry's proposal:<br /><br />"The entire proposed programme of tidal lagoons – consisting of 6 lagoons –would cost approximately 2 and a half times the cost of Hinkley, to produce around the same amount of electricity."<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5b3109a5e5274a55b88ed307/tidal-lagoon-programme-factsheet.pdf" target="_self" rel="nofollow">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5b3109a5e5274a55b88ed307/tidal-lagoon-programme-factsheet.pdf</a><br /><br /><br />(Much as I dislike them calling this a 'factsheet'...!)]]>
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