https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/23/uk-may-need-new-gas-fired-power-stations-to-decarbonise-grid
A report by an engineer group, which may possibly have a finger in the fossil pie, or just conservative.

Not a mention, in the article, of the growth of battery storage which, like the growth of renewable generation in the last two decades, is going much faster than even the optimists imagined. Nor of the prospect of the electric vehicle fleet equiped to discharge as well as charge, as grid storage. The latter promises to destroy the case for nuclear as baseload - stop building now!

Is that what the nukes are for then? For when renewables stop completely? Does that actually happen - windless winter North Sea -for how long?

Can the necessary storage be feasibly provided, calculated on climate data (frequency/duration/season of still winds) incl reliable allowance for climate change? I doubt the answer is 'must have more gas'.

Thanks Dave, very helpful. No potted answers, I'll have to read it all, like you keep telling me. Still, no one mentions the prospect of the electric vehicle fleet equiped to discharge as well as charge, as grid storage. I know that's not viable yet but seems only a case of manufacturers' Betamax vs VHS doubt.

Posted By: Peter_in_Hungary

Posted By: fostertomStill, no one mentions the prospect of the electric vehicle fleet equiped to discharge as well as charge, as grid storage

No thank you !

Agreed. I'll keep an open mind and am open to persuasion, but as things stand I have the same problem as PiH. Also car batteries don't solve the hard problem - long windless periods in winter.

Aiui, an EV draws about 20kW from its battery while cruising, rising to 100kW+ for fast acceleration.

But most homes could only export 3.6kW for V2G, with peaks around 7kW including their own consumption.

So the thermal load on the battery from V2G is pretty negligible compared to what it is normally designed to do. So it's not going to reduce the lifetime of the battery. This was the finding from the OVO V2G trials.

The premise of any battery is you draw from it while the price is high (often 4pm-8pm) and recharge it when the price is low (often overnight). So you aren't going to find it is flat in the morning, that's the point of maximum charge.

If it discharged say 4kW x 4h during the peak time (= 16kWh = 50 miles of range) then that might or might not consume a meaningful amount of the vehicle’s range between 4-8pm (depending if it is a 100 mile or 300 mile vehicle) but you could programme it not to do V2G when below say 60% charge if that matters to you.


So no practical problem with V2G, but is it financially worthwhile? At current prices, there is about 10p wholesale difference between highest and lowest daily price, so discharging that 16kWh would earn £1.60/d to be split between the household and the energy company. Maybe a couple of £100 a year off your bill, nice, but not enough £ for the whole country to rush out to do it.


Just how it seems to me at the moment, who knows what may change.

Posted By: WillInAberdeenSo no practical problem with V2G

Well, except for the fact that PiH only plugs his car in once a week and mine is less than that (sometimes once a month). Half of £1.60 or whatever is not going to incentivise me to go through the hassle of plugging my car in.

Just found this website which has a really interesting section on changing the grid reliance on fossil fuels. The answer (in their manifesto) is more nuclear and a huge increase in storage:

https://www.mygridgb.co.uk/2030grid/

I'm not sure how long the planned storage is expected to be able to power the country but my understanding is its intended to store surplus overnight electric for use the following day??? Would need colossal capacity to power the country through a few days of calm winter weather without gas, but maybe that's what is planned?? Anyone know?

Posted By: philedgeI'm not sure how long the planned storage is expected to be able to power the country but my understanding is its intended to store surplus overnight electric for use the following day??? Would need colossal capacity to power the country through a few days of calm winter weather without gas, but maybe that's what is planned?? Anyone know?

We're talking about long-term storage. Please read the references I have already provided if you're interested.

Posted By: Mike1no UK Government has put any serious cash into developing the UK's huge tidal resources

Wasn't a lot spent on a 'tidal hub' in Cornwall, ready for an expected rush of tidal projects, which were never heard of again? Bit like the Cornish Space Station at Newquay airport. Steamy Tea was always on about it.

There's an interesting review at https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/renewables/the-mystery-of-the-uks-untapped-tidal-power/ that includes the following graph of "Proposed tidal range projects, compared with new Hinkley Point power plant" (note that tidal range generally means barrage, whereas tidal strem is different.

Those power numbers (from the tidal trade lobby group) are a bit disingenuous because they are 'peak' power which is only reached intermittently, as with other renewables.

The Hendry review found that seven lagoons (with a total nameplate capacity of 18GW) would actually only produce 30 TWh/y, so an averaged output of 30TWh/8760h = 3.4GW, about the same as Hinckley C, but at twice the cost.

That's a small fraction of projected UK energy demand (30-60 GW) so it seems that tidal is nice to have, but not a game changer either way. The big hitters will be wind and solar, where we have 100s of GW potential.


The Swansea lagoon is still progressing, but under new management and as part of an industrial/housebuilding development which might provide cash flow to pay for the lagoon.



Batteries - if we agree we won't bother to plug in for a slice of £1.60, question is: how many £ world utility-scale batteries bother to plug in for? I suspect they will be keener than that, and so dampen out the price swings to below that level.



OP: The national grid FES have been published for 2024. The reason for the new gas stations seems to be
1) to plug the gap in the delayed new nuclear programme
2) gas is quickly becoming peak-shaving power, rather than baseload - that needs a different kind of gas station, that can breakeven on very short run times.

Posted By: WillInAberdeenThe Hendry review found that seven lagoons (with a total nameplate capacity of 18GW) would actually only produce 30 TWh/y, so an averaged output of 30TWh/8760h = 3.4GW, about the same as Hinckley C, but at twice the cost.

That wasn't Hendry's cost forecast:

Hendry review, page 17:

Quote

"Table 2

Capacity GW : 17.9
Capex £bn : 54.8
Annual export power TWh: 30.0
"
End quote. I can't format it the same here.

The £54.8bn capex cost is roughly twice what HPC was costed at, at that time on like -for-like basis. HPC's cost has gone up with construction inflation since then, but so has the cost of all civils projects, including the barrages. (And HS2!)


The bar chart screenshot above, is based instead on a hypothetical CFD deal, that Hendry proposed the govt might offer to buy all the power from barrages for 60 years. This looks attractive (when compared to the 35 year deal for HPC) because the 25 extra years of guaranteed CFD income would offset the extra capital cost of the barrages. However the govt flat refused to offer them such a good deal.

The bar chart also includes large "cost reductions" (dotted lines) which Hendry proposed could somehow be made to the barrage designs, while acknowledging this is speculative and costs might turn out much greater once the the first pathfinder project was built.


I've no objection to tidal power, even at high prices, it's good to have eggs in many baskets. But the main point for me is that the 7 potential sites only amounted to 30TWh (5-10% of UK energy needs). Nice, but not the silver bullet that the previous developer was claiming.