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  1.  
    OK, taking this even further then (I think too much). Starting in the south and spreading north this year and next, could Local Authorities insist on PV installs, or at least 'future PV friendly' roof construction, when giving planning consent for suitable commercial new build.

    As I get older I find I'm taking a more socialist view on such matters, but am not blind to the commercial concerns of those being 'forced' to spend more. So if the extra cost, is actually a viable investment with reasonable savings, then easier to consider an element of compulsory, rather than optional. You catch more flies with honey than vinegar.

    Does anybody know what a reasonably large business pays for electricity, is 10p a fair guess, or does everything fall apart here? Can't find any references anywhere, too commercially sensitive possibly.

    Mart.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJan 5th 2012 edited
     
    Posted By: Martyn1981If I'm even half right, it's about time the media starts promoting the potential arrival of cost savings through PV, rather than bashing it all the time.


    There was a totally unrelated bit in yesterdays (04/12/2012) Daily Telegraph about gas and how there has been some new licenses sold in the USA. I think it was Total, with a Chinese partner that are investing $2.6b. They were one of many.
    That is really what the RE industry is up against. Finance will find its way to the most reliable and profitable areas. As Maggie used to say, 'you can't buck the market'. If PV had grid parity then the money would be flowing to it. It is not as it isn't.

    This ROI is alright for large companies, but does not work for in the domestic marketplace so well. I know I keep banging on about the capital sum invested and how it is totally lost the second you hand the money over, but it is very important as that has a value, and a future value.

    HSBC are currently offering 6% on current accounts, up to a maximum balance of £2,500 I think.
    Pop your cash in there, wait till the price of PV drops so that you do not have to wait 20+ years to break even (try the Carbon Trust calculator for your area to find this out). When the total installation price is down to about £2,500, then consider buying it. Have a cheap weekend away on the interest (£150 a year).

    Industry/commerce are the most likely to invest in RE technologies because of the CRC legislation and the long term views large companies take. Similar rules apply to new build, but not the existing stock of housing, so, in my opinion, the domestic market is not the place to invest at the moment.
    •  
      CommentAuthorDamonHD
    • CommentTimeJan 5th 2012
     
    I think that NYC has a rule to the effect that any energy efficiency measure that will pay off within 5 years *has* to be undertaken. That might get PV on a lot of commercial buildings...

    Rgds

    Damon
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeJan 5th 2012
     
    JSH - Have you got any further on what roof covering and integrated PV you will employ? Perhaps a new thread?
    •  
      CommentAuthorJSHarris
    • CommentTimeJan 5th 2012
     
    <blockquote><cite>Posted By: borpin</cite>JSH - Have you got any further on what roof covering and integrated PV you will employ? Perhaps a new thread?</blockquote>

    I'm going for standard black framed panels (probably Sanyo HIT panels) set into the slate roof so they are fairly flush (planners permitting). The new planning application should be in the post this afternoon, so I shall have to wait and see what they say.............
  2.  
    Steamy Tea, unfortunately you're right. I wish you weren't but then I wish I was six feet tall, and it aint gonna happen.

    Regarding home installation, and only dreams now, but spend the next 5 years ensuring all low hanging fruit are picked - insulation, low energy, efficient boiler, more insulation etc. Then around 2016+ when hopefully a 4kWp system is £5k take a leap of faith. Rather than a family fortnight abroad, or 2 years depression on a new car, or new bathroom - buy 100MWh's+ of clean energy spread over the next 40 years.

    Then 20 years later, tell your kids you did it for them, and demand the money back!

    Slightly daft idea, slightly serious possibilities. You never know.

    Mart.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJan 5th 2012
     
    Personally I think that energy security is the better path to follow when 'selling' RE technology.
    Couple of friends of mine are totally 'off grid' with PV, except when they use my shower, charge their phones and laptops here, eat my cooked food from my cold fridge etc. Keep pointing out to them that for £350 they could buy a 7.5kW generator and have a shower and kettle, plus a fan heater and a fully charged Macbook (which costs more than a solar panel).

    Luckily we have legislation that is cleaning up the grid, so I am happy for the big boys to do that on my behalf. In 20 years time your kids may be enjoying the very low carbon nuclear generated juice that will be powering the country (if it ever gets though the protest groups).
  3.  
    Steamy- do you put petrol in your friends car so that they can get to your shower?
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJan 5th 2012
     
    Not yet, but I suspect I will, they are always asking if I have a roof rack or a towbar.

    They run old diesels anyway, have offered old palm oil from the chip shop, but they seem reluctant, can't think why.
    • CommentAuthorGavin_A
    • CommentTimeJan 5th 2012 edited
     
    Posted By: SteamyTea(try the Carbon Trust calculator for your area to find this out).

    alternatively don't, being as it's prices are months out of date, so it's payback figures are also miles out.

    we've just reworked our pricelist and payback figures, and come up with a best case scenario for a sub 4KW domestic system of 11.7% for an investment of a shade under £8k.

    When I say best case, this is for Leeds, so perfect south facing roofs down south are going to give higher returns than this if the same price can be negotiated.

    Even the 4kWp Sanyo systems are giving returns of up to 9.9% - higher if you're a high daytime energy user.

    this is with the fit rate set to 21p.

    btw, we're predicting and would support a further FIT reduction in April to reflect the recent further reductions in equipment costs, and the huge FIT budget over runs... well I'd support it as long as it was in the region of 15-20% reduction from the 21p rate.

    If DECC ends up being forced to reinstate the old FIT rate for a bit the returns will be ridiculously high, and the budget will go through the roof.
    • CommentAuthorgcar90
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    Has anyone read this new publication from Tony Lodge at the CPS about the UK walking into gas dependency and fuel poverty?

    http://www.cps.org.uk/about/news/q/date/2012/01/03/the-atomic-clock/
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    Gavin
    So about 11 year payback and 9.5% return if you include saving on imported energy and export tariff you think.
    • CommentAuthorJoiner
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    Nice to have that scenario confirmed by another source, gcar90. It's pretty much what was said by some in the 'Fuel for the 21st Century?' thread.

    Hope you don't mind, but I've copied your link over to that thread so that it's available for anyone to pick up there. :wink:
    •  
      CommentAuthorJSHarris
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    The big problems seem to be that the lead time on new nuclear power stations is long (could they build them in time to meet the shortfall even if they started now?) and they don't make economic sense when compared to current gas prices, so the generating companies aren't going to invest on their own.

    So, the only way they'd get built is if the government stepped in, but that's unlikely when we're so strapped for cash. Like all governments, this one won't look further than winning the next election (complicated by Cameron probably wanting to get rid of Clegg in the process). The real energy crisis will hit the poorer sectors of the voting population after the next election, I expect, so do we really believe this lot will do anything about it now?
  4.  
    Quick snippet of info from a Pv wholesaler
    "There have been 1,741 registered installations of solar PV systems in the first two weeks following Dec 12th"
    • CommentAuthortony
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    ? unlikely in the extreme!
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012 edited
     
    Re: CPS paper
    It is a little bit alarmist and makes some poor assumptions, from an economic viewpoint.
    Several points need thinking about, firstly that household incomes will go up, if only inline with inflation, we have some of the lowest energy prices in Europe and there is plenty of gas in the UK and the Europe for the foreseeable future. There is also that little thing that annoys me of talking about electrical generation but then referring to overall household energy use. If we only had electrical generation for domestic energy then that would be fine.
    Shame that governments do not have the bottle to point out that our domestic energy is too cheap (hence we do not invest much in it, or reduction measures).
    The fuel poverty formula of >10% of Income is not really a good gauge, I doubt if it was based on decent research, but there will be a lot of research showing that many people are in it. A TV licence is about 1.5% of a low income wage (200 quid a week), rod fund licence on a mid 90's VW Golf Diesel is about 2.2%, food is about 20% (a meal out is about 10%). A normal bus journey to get to work is about 12%. Puts fuel poverty into perspective.
    •  
      CommentAuthorted
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012 edited
     
    MCS data for registrations for upto 50kW PV systems in the two weeks after 11th December were 1706 according to data released by DECC.

    In the third week (w/e 1st Jan) the number was 35. So 1741 is the figure for the 3 week period, not 2 weeks.

    I suspect that the majority of these are systems that should have been installed before the 11th Dec cutoff date but, for various reasons, failed to make it.
    •  
      CommentAuthorted
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    Posted By: SteamyTeaThe fuel poverty formula of >10% of Income is not really a good gauge
    I have always wondered what this actually means. Is there any figure for the temperature to which a home should be heated? If I heated my home to 22Deg C then it would cost me more than 10%. It needs to be better defined and peoples expectations of the inside temperature of their homes managed.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    Ted
    Lovely charts. Thanks

    borpin
    Yes temperature should be in there, but then so does volume your heating, I person in a could house with one small room at 23C is not the same as 1 person in a small home with all rooms at 21C. There has to be an assumption of reasonable expectations, something we have lost I fear.
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    Posted By: SteamyTeaYes temperature should be in there, but then so does volume your heating, I person in a could house with one small room at 23C is not the same as 1 person in a small home with all rooms at 21C. There has to be an assumption of reasonable expectations, something we have lost I fear.
    Ah yes of course, another variable I had not thought of. It goes back to that suggestion in a report a while back that 'old' folks in a large house should consider moving to smaller properties. So instead of paying benefit to heat a large home for 1/2 people, the incentive should be there to move to a more suitable property? I am not advocating throwing people out of their homes, but if there is a financial incentive to them to move (tax breaks on profit etc), it is more likely we can get people into suitable accommodation to meet their needs.
    •  
      CommentAuthorted
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    This is mostly covered in the government's formal definition of fuel poverty:

    "A household is said to be in fuel poverty if it needs to spend more than 10 per cent of its income on fuel to maintain an adequate level of warmth (usually defined as 21 degrees Celsius for the main living area, and 18 degrees Celsius for other occupied rooms) and to meet its other energy needs (i.e. lighting and appliances, water heating and cooking)."

    http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/business-energy/energy/fuel-poverty

    (My living room is currently a reasonably pleasant 13°C)
    • CommentAuthorborpin
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    Posted By: tedThis is mostly covered in the government's formal definition of fuel poverty:
    Excellent. Never managed to find this before.
    •  
      CommentAuthorDamonHD
    • CommentTimeJan 6th 2012
     
    Thanks Ted.

    I'd say 21C and 18C are a bit hot (more like 18C for living/working area and 14C--16C for sleeping) and I'd like that other 'energy needs' tightened to be 'essential' (eg no huge plasma TV blaring with the windows wide open in winter to avoid getting sweaty) and with some notion of the occupants having taken all reasonable measures to conserve given their means, if I were redrawing the definition...

    Rgds

    Damon
  5.  
    • CommentAuthorCWatters
    • CommentTimeJan 20th 2012
     
    So another massive rush?
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJan 20th 2012
     
    Less players in the market now though.
  6.  
    installers or customer ? I'll be keeping Feb. free just in case:bigsmile:
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJan 20th 2012
     
    Installers, at least one local company to me has shut up and vanished. Customers may be nervous too. Hard to tell really.
   
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