Posted By: Martyn1981If I'm even half right, it's about time the media starts promoting the potential arrival of cost savings through PV, rather than bashing it all the time.

There was a totally unrelated bit in yesterdays (04/12/2012) Daily Telegraph about gas and how there has been some new licenses sold in the USA. I think it was Total, with a Chinese partner that are investing $2.6b. They were one of many.
That is really what the RE industry is up against. Finance will find its way to the most reliable and profitable areas. As Maggie used to say, 'you can't buck the market'. If PV had grid parity then the money would be flowing to it. It is not as it isn't.

This ROI is alright for large companies, but does not work for in the domestic marketplace so well. I know I keep banging on about the capital sum invested and how it is totally lost the second you hand the money over, but it is very important as that has a value, and a future value.

HSBC are currently offering 6% on current accounts, up to a maximum balance of £2,500 I think.
Pop your cash in there, wait till the price of PV drops so that you do not have to wait 20+ years to break even (try the Carbon Trust calculator for your area to find this out). When the total installation price is down to about £2,500, then consider buying it. Have a cheap weekend away on the interest (£150 a year).

Industry/commerce are the most likely to invest in RE technologies because of the CRC legislation and the long term views large companies take. Similar rules apply to new build, but not the existing stock of housing, so, in my opinion, the domestic market is not the place to invest at the moment.

JSH - Have you got any further on what roof covering and integrated PV you will employ? Perhaps a new thread?

Steamy Tea, unfortunately you're right. I wish you weren't but then I wish I was six feet tall, and it aint gonna happen.

Regarding home installation, and only dreams now, but spend the next 5 years ensuring all low hanging fruit are picked - insulation, low energy, efficient boiler, more insulation etc. Then around 2016+ when hopefully a 4kWp system is £5k take a leap of faith. Rather than a family fortnight abroad, or 2 years depression on a new car, or new bathroom - buy 100MWh's+ of clean energy spread over the next 40 years.

Then 20 years later, tell your kids you did it for them, and demand the money back!

Slightly daft idea, slightly serious possibilities. You never know.

Mart.

Steamy- do you put petrol in your friends car so that they can get to your shower?

Posted By: SteamyTea(try the Carbon Trust calculator for your area to find this out).

alternatively don't, being as it's prices are months out of date, so it's payback figures are also miles out.

we've just reworked our pricelist and payback figures, and come up with a best case scenario for a sub 4KW domestic system of 11.7% for an investment of a shade under £8k.

When I say best case, this is for Leeds, so perfect south facing roofs down south are going to give higher returns than this if the same price can be negotiated.

Even the 4kWp Sanyo systems are giving returns of up to 9.9% - higher if you're a high daytime energy user.

this is with the fit rate set to 21p.

btw, we're predicting and would support a further FIT reduction in April to reflect the recent further reductions in equipment costs, and the huge FIT budget over runs... well I'd support it as long as it was in the region of 15-20% reduction from the 21p rate.

If DECC ends up being forced to reinstate the old FIT rate for a bit the returns will be ridiculously high, and the budget will go through the roof.

Gavin
So about 11 year payback and 9.5% return if you include saving on imported energy and export tariff you think.

The big problems seem to be that the lead time on new nuclear power stations is long (could they build them in time to meet the shortfall even if they started now?) and they don't make economic sense when compared to current gas prices, so the generating companies aren't going to invest on their own.

So, the only way they'd get built is if the government stepped in, but that's unlikely when we're so strapped for cash. Like all governments, this one won't look further than winning the next election (complicated by Cameron probably wanting to get rid of Clegg in the process). The real energy crisis will hit the poorer sectors of the voting population after the next election, I expect, so do we really believe this lot will do anything about it now?

? unlikely in the extreme!

MCS data for registrations for upto 50kW PV systems in the two weeks after 11th December were 1706 according to data released by DECC.

In the third week (w/e 1st Jan) the number was 35. So 1741 is the figure for the 3 week period, not 2 weeks.

I suspect that the majority of these are systems that should have been installed before the 11th Dec cutoff date but, for various reasons, failed to make it.

Posted By: SteamyTeaThe fuel poverty formula of >10% of Income is not really a good gauge

I have always wondered what this actually means. Is there any figure for the temperature to which a home should be heated? If I heated my home to 22Deg C then it would cost me more than 10%. It needs to be better defined and peoples expectations of the inside temperature of their homes managed.

Posted By: SteamyTeaYes temperature should be in there, but then so does volume your heating, I person in a could house with one small room at 23C is not the same as 1 person in a small home with all rooms at 21C. There has to be an assumption of reasonable expectations, something we have lost I fear.

Ah yes of course, another variable I had not thought of. It goes back to that suggestion in a report a while back that 'old' folks in a large house should consider moving to smaller properties. So instead of paying benefit to heat a large home for 1/2 people, the incentive should be there to move to a more suitable property? I am not advocating throwing people out of their homes, but if there is a financial incentive to them to move (tax breaks on profit etc), it is more likely we can get people into suitable accommodation to meet their needs.

Posted By: tedThis is mostly covered in the government's formal definition of fuel poverty:

Excellent. Never managed to find this before.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/19/solar-subsidy-cuts-government-compromise
update !

Less players in the market now though.

Installers, at least one local company to me has shut up and vanished. Customers may be nervous too. Hard to tell really.