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    • CommentAuthorjms452
    • CommentTimeMay 30th 2012 edited
     
    I remember some old threads about fitters forgetting to connect a string etc on PV installs and didn't fancy waiting year/few months to check performance.

    So using pvgis (thanks Damon) I calculated the clear sky irradiance of the two 45 degree inclination arrays 1.75kW SSE(-11) and 2.25kW WSW (-79) for May.

    The pvgis fixed plane clear sky irradiance is multiplied by panel efficiency (15.4%) x panel area (1.6m2) x no of panels (16) x non-panel system efficiency (90%). The the two aspects summed for each time interval.

    This only holds for a perfect cloud free days so I was rather chuffed when day 1 was the start of our mini heat wave!

    The only fudge factor is the non-panel system efficiency (inverter + wires + panels getting hot + etc) which pvgis suggests as 86% but I got a better fit at 90%.

    So it seems at a first (and arguably second) order pvgis is a very good predictor of clear sky irradiance and that my array(s) 'does what it said on the tin'.

    Now it just 'weather' to investigate - I think I should hold off for a bit before making any impressive claims for annual yield based on the 5 days since install..
    • CommentAuthorjms452
    • CommentTimeMay 30th 2012
     
    and the graph
      performance - day 1.jpg
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeMay 30th 2012
     
    No idea where you are, but I would expect 95% of the time your output will be between Red and the Green lines.
      Cloud Variation.jpg
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeMay 30th 2012 edited
     
    Interesting that there is a small dip at 9AM on the prediction and you have a dip in performance until then. There is nothing to read into that at all, I suspect that the small dip is either a rounding error if they are using some random numbers to mimic cloud cover or a van parked by the light meter if they are not.
    •  
      CommentAuthorDamonHD
    • CommentTimeMay 30th 2012
     
    Could be allowance for horizon effects.

    I get some very early morning shading even now from a tree a considerable distance to the north east of us.

    Rgds

    Damon
    • CommentAuthorjms452
    • CommentTimeMay 30th 2012 edited
     
    The dip at about 9:30 predicted is probably just excell when the gradient of the line changes from diffuse to direct sunlight.

    The dip on actual is partly due to a big tree about 50m East from us and partly due to a slight haze that morning - on subsequent mornings it moved up close to predicted at about 8:30.

    In general very pleased both with the direct sunlight performance and the amount of power we generate even when its cloudy. i.e. in todays thunder storm we had ~100W as we do at the moment (wrote at 8:30pm -dusk approaching) !
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeMay 30th 2012
     
    Diffused light can be quite deceptive. Sometimes it is possible to get more power by pointing a panel directly upwards (how solar data is collected) as then, regardless of the time of year, as soon as the sun is up, some light is being collected.
    Keep wanting to test this more to find out how much difference it makes over a year.
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