Apparently the EC is telling the UK to increase the rates of VAT on insulation, etc:

http://www.utilityweek.co.uk/news/news_story.asp?id=197047&title=Brussels+tells+UK+to+up+VAT+on+energy+saving+materials+or+face+Court+of+Justice

If it'll mean that VAT on insulation will be higher than VAT on energy then I'd regard that as being a tad counter-productive. Well, barking, really.

Yes, I fear that the answer is to bump up domestic fuel VAT, but that would be politically very very hard I think.

Rgds

Damon

I believe energy price inflation has averaged around 9% a year for the last decade or so in the UK.

Personally I reckon it will carry on at about that rate for another 10 years or so, until we reach the point of the vast majority of our gas being imported, at which point the annual rate of increase ought to stabilise at around the rate of increase for world gas prices.

Our gas prices are currently about the cheapest in the EU other than those Eastern countries who have historic low price agreements with Russia in exchange for allowing Russian gas pipelines to transit the countries to supply the rest of Europe.

These prices will inevitably have to tend towards the European average as we'll increasingly be competing directly with these countries for Russian & Norwegian gas along with others all over the world for LNG.

This factor alone has been the overwhelming driving force in both gas and electricity price increases in the UK over the last decade or so.

So, I agree that 15% per year is far too high for a long term forecast, and even using the recent trend is probably an over-estimate if you're looking further than 2020 or so, but significantly above inflation energy price increases for at least the next generation or so are a virtual certainty.

How rapid the increases are, along with how much impact they'll have are largely down to how rapidly we can reduce consumption levels in the UK, along with factors such as whether we start burning more coal again if it's cheaper than gas again (which currently seems to be what's happening).

If Gas prices are at 5p/kWh today, then 10 years ago they would have been a nats under tuppence, Electricity at 18p would be 7p.

EU Portals says we are paying € 0.0465 (£0.0375) for gas, so that would have been £0.0146/kWh ten years ago if fuel inflation had been 9%pa
At 2%, it would have been £0.306p/kWh, which seems about right to me.

And just how amazing is it that we have all this definitive data at our fingertips so that we can argue the toss? I think it's grand!

Rgds

Damon

or in actual straight pence per kWh terms, the price of gas now stands at 275% of the price in April 2004.


data in downloadable excel format here http://www.decc.gov.uk/publications/basket.aspx?filepath=statistics%2fsource%2fprices%2fqep213.xls&filetype=4&minwidth=true#basket

I worked the percentage figures out myself from the data in the tables.

Posted By: Gavin_AI worked the percentage figures out myself from the data in the tables.

How, there are a couple of 3 ways to work it out, how did you do the rounding, how does DECC do it for that matter. Too late to look at it closely now, be fun though.
I wonder if they take standing charges into account, they take the VAT change.

My electricity prices. Pence per unit. Dates are bills with new rates except for later ones where it's the actual month of the rate change.

Southern Electric:
1984 Aug 4.900 + No VAT
1985 Aug 5.070
1986 Aug 5.360
1987 Feb 5.090
1988 Aug 5.700
1989 Nov 6.040
1990 Aug 6.590
1990 May 6.040
1990 Nov 6.590
1991 Aug 7.330
1992 Aug 7.490
1993 Nov 7.270
1994 Feb 7.170
1994 May 7.170 + 8% VAT
1995 Aug 7.000
1996 Nov 6.720
1997 Jul 6.160
1997 Nov 6.160 + 5% VAT
1998 Aug 6.040
Independent Energy:
2000 Mar 5.350
2000 Sept 5.200
npower
2001 Mar 5.200
2001 Aug 4.630
2001 Nov 4.770
2003 Aug 10.190 / 5.910 (£13.41/quarter standing charge gone, first is on first 182 units)
2003 Nov 10.600 / 6.140
2004 Aug 12.650 / 6.140
2005 Feb 13.700 / 6.140
2006 Feb 15.530 / 7.200
2006 May 17.780 / 8.240
2006 Nov 19.540 / 9.060
2007 May 17.400 / 8.440
2008 Jan 12.060 / 11.510
2009 Feb 14.570 / 13.900
2009 Mar 13.190 / 12.580

Originally posted here:

http://www.navitron.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=12348.0#subject_135989

If it has gone up 7.95p, isn't that a 123% increase on the 2003 price or you are double counting the base price, this one has always confused me

Here is my prices since Jan 2006 (not got last bill in)
I have not changed my contract one bit, this makes it a bit tricky as sometimes EDF have a standing charge and other times they do not.
So if I just took the 04/01/2006 prices of 15.74 and 4.29 and compared them to the 24/02/2012 prices of 15.24 and 5.77 it shows little increase.
But I could take the lowest rate I have ever paid and compare it to the highest rate (10.11 and 19.86 for day and 3.81 and 5.77 for night and compare them, except the higher day rate precedes the lower one sometimes).
Or a yearly mean price 13.2 and 4.05 in 2006 to 15.76 and 5.33 in 2012

Let's run with that one
Day increase in 6 years, that will be 15% increase on the day rate and a 24% increase on the night rate (2.5%pa on the day, 4%pa on the night).
Just goes to show that changing supplier or deal is not always an advantage (though EDF bought SWEB).

Date,Day Rate,Night Rate
14/01/2006,15.74,4.29
14/01/2006,11.42,4.29
12/06/2006,14.58,3.98
12/06/2006,10.58,3.81
12/06/2006,13.93,
12/06/2006,10.11,
06/08/2006,14.58,3.98
06/08/2006,14.58,3.81
06/08/2006,10.58,3.81
16/08/2006,13.93,
16/08/2006,13.93,
16/08/2006,10.11,
16/08/2006,10.11,
08/09/2006,15.74,4.29
08/09/2006,15.74,4.29
08/09/2006,15.58,3.98
26/02/2007,15.74,4.29
26/02/2007,11.42,
08/06/2007,15.74,4.29
08/06/2007,11.42,
22/08/2007,15.74,4.29
22/08/2007,11.42,
20/11/2007,15.74,4.29
20/11/2007,11.42,
29/02/2008,15.74,4.20
29/02/2008,11.42,4.62
29/02/2008,16.98,
29/02/2008,12.32,
14/05/2008,16.98,4.62
14/05/2008,12.32,
29/08/2008,16.98,4.62
29/08/2008,12.32,5.40
29/08/2008,19.86,
29/08/2008,14.41,
29/08/2008,16.98,4.60
29/08/2008,12.32,5.40
29/08/2008,19.98,
29/08/2008,14.41,
25/02/2009,19.86,5.40
25/02/2009,14.40,
01/06/2009,19.86,5.40
01/06/2009,14.41,4.96
01/06/2009,18.27,
01/06/2009,13.25,
21/08/2009,18.27,4.96
21/08/2009,13.25,
24/11/2009,18.27,4.69
24/11/2009,13.25,4.96
24/11/2009,18.27,
24/11/2009,13.25,
24/02/2010,18.27,4.96
24/02/2010,13.25,
18/05/2010,18.27,4.96
18/05/2010,13.25,
25/08/2010,18.27,4.96
25/08/2010,13.25,
24/11/2010,18.27,4.96
24/11/2010,13.25,5.09
24/11/2010,18.74,
24/11/2010,13.59,
28/02/2011,18.74,5.09
28/02/2011,13.59,
14/09/2011,14.96,5.56
24/02/2012,15.24,5.77

We aren't the only country to have a reduced rate of VAT on insulation..

http://www.buildup.eu/financing-schemes/25420

IME I think we see economy 7 meters on about 5% of houses, maybe a bit more but not much.

The thing I find most interesting about your figures btw is how wildly they seem to fluctuate.

I've not work on a property with E7/E10 in years ,
re. PV and E7/E10 I always thoguht the additonal standing charge made it pointless unless you heated+HW with electric in which case you'd have it anyway.
ST whats your energy cost average over the year per month , mines currently around £45/month

When I did the sums a little while ago E7 worked out being almost exactly the same price as standard, taking PV into account. Would probably have been a little more expensive this year, given the washout of a spring/summer we've had. No storage heaters at present.

it's no doubt higher in areas off the gas grid where storage heaters etc made more sense, but 30% of the entire country would be way higher than my experience, although that's only a few hundred homes so not necessarily accurate.

But yes, if those homes have storage heaters, and presumably electric cookers then their consumption will be far higher than those who use gas for heating and cooking (or just for heating).