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General: Weather Patterns and the Jet Stream

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    • CommentAuthorTriassic
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012 edited
     
    I read that the current wet weather is caused by the jet stream moving south and the Met Office can't tell us when it will move north again. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/18748701

    So I was wondering, are we in for a harsh winter? Can you imagine a months rain in a day (like we had yesterday) when the temperature is below freezing?

    Should I be buying a snow shovel and stocking up on tins of beans, or should I buy more insulation!?

    Thoughts!
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012
     
    Always buy more insulation as the weather will do what it does.
    A months rainfall in a few hours is not always a problem in itself. It is where it goes once it hits the ground. One problem is that we have removed natural drainage systems, built in stupid locations, relied on third parties to sort out problems/assure us that it is not a problem.
    In the UK we have a very nice climate, it is green for a reason here. Always worth looking at the Central England Temperature records to see just how normal variation in the weather is.
    • CommentAuthormarktime
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012 edited
     
    Welcome to the new normal. The weather is responding to the changing conditions between the poles and the equator. The jet stream, which conditions weather in the UK is being influenced by the changing heat conditions in the Arctic. One result is that the meanders are tending to get stuck, resulting in extreme weather events.

    What evidence do we have? Well, extreme hot and cold events tended to cancel each other out in the fifties,. i.e the ratio was 1:1, however in the first decade of the 21st century that ratio moved to 2:1, hot records v. cold and so far this year they are 10:1.

    http://climatecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Heat_Waves_and_Climate_Change.pdf

    If you live in a flood plain, sell up and move out. Nothing like sewage floating around to make a flood situation extremely unpleasant.
    • CommentAuthorEd Davies
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012
     
    The jet streams tend to move on timescales of weeks or months so I really doubt there's much that can be said one way or the other about next winter's weather.

    This might be of more relevance:

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/12/cold-winter-in-a-world-of-warming/
    • CommentAuthorskyewright
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012
     
    Posted By: Ed DaviesThe jet streams tend to move on timescales of weeks or months so I really doubt there's much that can be said one way or the other about next winter's weather.

    Something similar happened around this in time of year in 2008 or 2009.

    Then, as now, our part of the UK enjoyed unusually dry weather[1] while the S was soggy. Later in the year normality resumed.

    PS. In case it makes you feel any better, I'll mention that last winter while the S was building up to drought orders, the NW was having an unusually wet winter. Our weather started to improve just about the time the rain started again to the S.

    [1] The local weekly was saying last week that it might be necesssary to tanker in water
    • CommentAuthorskyewright
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012 edited
     
    Posted By: SteamyTeaIn the UK we have a very nice climate, it is green for a reason here. Always worth looking at the Central England Temperature records to see just how normal variation in the weather is.

    I was about to add something in a similar vein, but more along the lines of "have you considered getting a weather station?".

    Observing weather data over a few years really brings home just how variable weather is in, and across, the UK.

    As is sometimes said, "The UK doesn't have a climate, just weather". :wink:
    •  
      CommentAuthorDamonHD
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012
     
    • CommentAuthorJoiner
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012
     
    I've given up on the weather at last and retract EVERYTHING I said on the other weather (forecasting) thread.

    British weather isn't what gives us the "British character", it's was pisses us off!

    Even if I believed in God, by now I'd be inclined to suggest that he (or she, given the perversity) is having a laugh.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012
     
    Posted By: Joinerit's was pisses us off!
    That IS the British character!
    •  
      CommentAuthorDamonHD
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012
     
    I suspect that we ain't seen nuthin' yet...

    Rgds

    Damon
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2012 edited
     
    Can we have some pestilence, never been really sure what it is. Then maybe some brimstone, not sure what that is either.
    Plague of frogs and rivers of blood I understand, and saw a water spout down here a year or two back (just outside Newlyn Harbour).

    For real strange variable weather try this:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00fsxd8/episodes/guide

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