Green Building Forum - Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil Sat, 30 May 2026 22:13:00 +0100 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/ Lussumo Vanilla 1.0.3 Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155752#Comment_155752 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155752#Comment_155752 Thu, 06 Sep 2012 22:29:10 +0100 jamesingram http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-08-28/dont-worry-theres-plenty-oil
some of the script
"Our civilization runs on oil.
It’s the cheapest, most energy-dense and portable fuel we've ever found. Nature required tens of millions of years to make petroleum, and we've used up the best of it in less than two hundred.......
The oil industry is now staging another PR counter-offensive. They're telling us that applying "new" technologies like hydrofracking to low-porosity rocks makes lots of lower quality, unconventional oil available. They argue we just need to drill more to produce more. Problem solved!

But wait. What's actually new here? Most of this technology has been around since the 1980s. The unconventional resources have been known to geologists for decades. What's new is high oil prices.
It’s high oil prices that make unconventional oil worth producing in the first place. It takes lots of money and energy, not to mention water, to frack low-porosity rocks. And the environmental risks are staggering.
How does the economy handle high oil prices? Well, it turns out the economy hates high oil prices and responds by going into recession. Which makes energy prices volatile, rendering the industry subject to booms and busts

So, what’s the bottom line here?
Yes, there's still oil in the ground. We just can't afford it. In broad terms, the peak oil analysts were right. But the fossil fuel industry is winning the PR battle.
What really matters, though, is not who wins the debate, but how we prepare for the inevitable. We’ve got to wean ourselves off our high-energy lifestyle.
We'd be foolish to wait for events to settle the debate once and for all. Let's say goodbye to oil. It's saying goodbye to us."

feel free to comment , cheers Jim]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155756#Comment_155756 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155756#Comment_155756 Thu, 06 Sep 2012 23:50:47 +0100 nikhoward
This one could be fun.]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155765#Comment_155765 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155765#Comment_155765 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 07:17:24 +0100 SteamyTea Today (07-09-2012) WTI is at $94.72 and Brent is at $113.49) and PV is about £1200/kWp, so that will be about 4p/kWh for oil and (assuming 25 year life of system) 40p/kWh for PV (a quarter if what it was a few years back).
Now that is a ten to one ratio at present, but the present time does not last long. In 2008, some people where saying that oil would hit $250/barrel, about double what it is today, so 8p/kWh (PV then was not far off £4000/kWp), if that had happened, and it was well documented that it was never going to, all that would have happened is that we, in the UK, would have driven less, heated our houses less with oil and world trade would have slowed. What actually happened because of the price spike to £150/barrel (caused by refining problems rather than oil in the ground), was that the price dropped to $50/barrel, and PV was then comparatively about 20 times more expensive.
Now I have just picked oil and PV as two examples of supply side pricing, but you can pick any fossil fuel and compare it to any 'renewable' technology and I doubt that you will find price parity when comparing cost per kWh. So we may or may not have reached peak oil, but it is an irrelevance when comparing costs.
If the world, or the UK, or even an individual, really wants to make a difference, then reduction in energy use is the way to go.]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155767#Comment_155767 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155767#Comment_155767 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 08:04:52 +0100 jms452 Posted By: SteamyTea PV is about £1200/kWp, so that will be about 4p/kWh for oil and (assuming 25 year life of system) 40p/kWh for PV (a quarter if what it was a few years back).
Now that is a ten to one ratio at present, but the present time does not last long.

This seems way to high for PV - ignoring inflation, time value of money and lack of storage (i.e. simple per kWh) I get:

£1200/kWp
1kWp yields about 800kWh/year
over 25 years that's 20MwH
or 6p/kWh (maybe 7.5p if you need a new inverter after 12 years)

a kwH of oil also doesn't generate a kWh of electricity...]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155771#Comment_155771 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155771#Comment_155771 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 09:10:13 +0100 SteamyTea EST estimate that a 1 kW system at my location would yield just under 1 MWh/year

So that would be 25,000 kWh over 25 years and cost about £1200 quid, so about 5p/kWh

Oil, in its refined form is about 6p/kWh

Grid electricity is about 15p/kWh day and 6p night (what I pay)

So if that is the case, and I apologise for my early morning mistake, if you are converting to heat, water or air, does not matter, though water does allow for storage, oil and PV are pretty much on price parity at the moment.
I shall have to look into getting a kW fitted as if you ignore the whole FITs business, PV modules are about 55p/Watt, a small inverter will be about £700, kit and caboodle say another £500, could get 1 kW fitted (about as much as my roof will take) for around £1750, so that would work out at 7p/kWh (though ST may be a better bet at the same price).]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155776#Comment_155776 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155776#Comment_155776 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 11:41:30 +0100 fostertom Posted By: SteamyTeaWhen the price of one resource goes up we substitute it with another when the price matchesand that kind of hardline economics is a bedrock of your unsentimental view of how the world works, innit ST? Call it MROMI. How about the parallel EROEI calc? Doesn't that over-ride the MROMI calc? - otherwise dangerous absurdity.]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155780#Comment_155780 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155780#Comment_155780 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 13:25:11 +0100 jms452 Posted By: fostertomand that kind of hardline economics is a bedrock of your unsentimental view of how the world works, innit ST?

I would swap hardline for mainstream.]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155783#Comment_155783 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155783#Comment_155783 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 14:02:10 +0100 SteamyTea Posted By: fostertomyour unsentimental view of how the world works
Economics does not have emotion attached to it, just as well in my opinion.
Now I am going to have to look up what those acronyms mean. :bigsmile:
Had a look and found this http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3743]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155801#Comment_155801 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155801#Comment_155801 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 15:22:51 +0100 fostertom
EROEI - Energy return on energy invested. I invented a companion one - MROMI - Money returm on money invested.

MROMI is what's happening at present, and that mainstream economics can handle nicely. But what happens when the MROMI-virtuous economic activity in question is damaging in effect, and an absurdity even in its own terms?

Tho its MROMI may be heathy, what if the EROEI of an energy-generating technology is low or even less-than-unity? What if, on a full accounting, the energy input required for production approaches or even exceeds the energy generated?

That is the case with e.g, making gasoline from corn. Modern fracking etc technologies aren't much better. Long gone are the days when an 'easy' oil well had an EROEI of 1000 - that's down to 30 or 40 nowadays, and the new techniques are in single figures.

Posted By: SteamyTeaEconomics does not have emotion attached to it
If this is classified as mere 'emotion' by economists, well that says it all.]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155828#Comment_155828 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155828#Comment_155828 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 22:49:01 +0100 Gavin_A Posted By: SteamyTea
Posted By: fostertomyour unsentimental view of how the world works

Economics does not have emotion attached to it, just as well in my opinion.

that's what the economists would have you believe.

I call bull on that though.]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155836#Comment_155836 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=155836#Comment_155836 Sat, 08 Sep 2012 11:30:33 +0100 owlman ]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179480#Comment_179480 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179480#Comment_179480 Mon, 08 Jul 2013 22:19:04 +0100 jamesingram http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10059]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179487#Comment_179487 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179487#Comment_179487 Mon, 08 Jul 2013 22:34:20 +0100 Jeff B Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179507#Comment_179507 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179507#Comment_179507 Tue, 09 Jul 2013 08:52:47 +0100 Ed Davies Posted By: Jeff Band what about all the other things we need oil for anyway like plastics and pharmaceuticals?Thank you, I do wish more people would consider this. We have a choice between a near-indefinite supply of raw materials or a few decades worth of energy.]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179512#Comment_179512 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179512#Comment_179512 Tue, 09 Jul 2013 09:20:49 +0100 SteamyTea I think the remains are not that high a percentage of total, so what happens to all the rest.]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179519#Comment_179519 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179519#Comment_179519 Tue, 09 Jul 2013 10:15:52 +0100 Mikel
"I wonder how excited politicians and the general public would be if we could magically substitute the phrase "higher prices" for "blah blah technology" whenever an article talks about oil.

Here are some examples from recent drumbeats:

The successes of deepwater and oil sands developments are examples of how higher prices are key to delivering additional sources of liquid supplies to meet rising demand. Ten years ago, these supplies were barely on the radar screen.

Several developments lie behind this looming geostrategic shift. The first is the advent of shale oil and natural gas production made possible by higher prices.

Higher prices can boost fuel efficiency by 5 to 10 percent.

Given a sufficient distribution of energy resources and a large enough network of electrically conducting tubes, plus a bit of storage, these problems can be overcome—with higher prices.

New discoveries and higher prices have increased the oil industry's ability to increase production in recent years

Thought we were running out of fossil fuels? Higher prices means Britain and the U.S. could tap undreamed reserves of gas and oil

The economic and even political implications of these higher prices, which won’t be completely understood for some time, are already significant.

It paints a very different picture, doesn't it?

Any super hackers out there want to set up an alternative news feed where energy articles are first run through a sed script with about 20 lines or so like the following?

s/new technology/higher prices/g
s/new technologies/higher prices/g
s/technological revolution/higher prices/g
s/technological advances/higher prices/g
...
Jon"]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179521#Comment_179521 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179521#Comment_179521 Tue, 09 Jul 2013 10:34:32 +0100 Mikel
For example, hydrogen can be produced by electrolysis and reacted with CO2 to produce methane. Other chemical techniques can produce longer chain hydrocarbons.

See http://www.uni-kassel.de/upress/online/frei/978-3-89958-798-2.volltext.frei.pdf, section 4 p104]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179523#Comment_179523 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179523#Comment_179523 Tue, 09 Jul 2013 10:46:50 +0100 fostertom Posted By: Jeff BSurely as long as we keep finding ways of squeezing yet more oil from the ground then the incentive to find alternative technologies is not there? Is necessity still the mother of invention? I presume the price of this difficult-to-extract oil will reach a point whereby a new but very expensive technology could become viableDon't forget EROEI - Energy Return on Energy Invested - moving inexorably downward regardless of MROMI - Money Return on Money Invested.

Yes, higher prices enable more expensive technologies and in fact the oil cos make even more money than they did with 'easy' oil. But pretty much every new technology delivers yet lower EROEI (especially 'renewables').

So ever-increasing energy supplies may be dragged from the ground by expensive new technologies but these require so much energy input that there's less and less surplus left over for the world to use. So prices go up, so yet more expensive (and profitable) technologies provide yet less useful surplus.

Anyone spot the flaw in this scenario?

Turns out Peak Oil doesn't mean a peak in growth of out-of-the-ground supply, followed by decline (that growth does indeed look almost limitless, enabled by exponentially rising real-price).
Rather, it means a peak in growth of available surplus, at any price, after falling EROEI has had its effect. That effect is so sharply geared that the decline will be steeper than anyone has envisaged.

Note that there are no 'new technologies' anywhere on the horizon that would improve EROEI. All make it worse. Only another one-off bonanza like the discovery of fossil fuel could do that - or something like 'free energy from the quantum vacuum'!

NB by 'fossil fuel' we really mean the mid-phase of oil incl early gas - when great oilfields were easily drilled in shallow waters and benign climates close to centres of demand. Some of those had EROEI as high as 1000. They are long gone - till recently oil was in the low 100s and that is the EROEI that western/industrial society is built on and assumes for its workings.

Nowadays global all-source EROEI is down to mid-20s and falling fast. But western/industrial society is blithely unaware that it's running on a giant flywheel, and has absolutely no plans to adjust.

That is because EROEI finds no place in economic theory - there is nothing, no new technology, that can be classically substituted in case of falling EROEI, and Economics/Accounting, call it what you will, is blind to the concept.]]> Don't Worry, There's Plenty of Oil https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179532#Comment_179532 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9538&Focus=179532#Comment_179532 Tue, 09 Jul 2013 12:44:35 +0100 jms452
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0_9xD9QQUY]]>