Green Building Forum - PV futures Thu, 25 Jun 2026 01:25:34 +0100 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/ Lussumo Vanilla 1.0.3 PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164161#Comment_164161 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164161#Comment_164161 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 13:25:00 +0000 Ed Davies
At £100/m² they're already cheaper than windows by area, I think. Windows are similar technology but with more oxygen and less doping in one of the layers and no backing plate :-).

So, it seems to me that if you can use them immediately then there's no point in waiting - buy now. If, on the other hand, you can't use them for a while it's a difficult question when to buy. Delaying might save a small amount of money but it's entirely possible that the current glut will dry up or EU anti-dumping threats will be acted on or something so the price would go up resulting in bigger losses.

Anybody got any up-to-date thoughts on what prices are likely to do this year?]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164181#Comment_164181 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164181#Comment_164181 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 16:13:55 +0000 SteamyTea Posted By: Ed DaviesAnybody got any up-to-date thoughts on what prices are likely to do this year?
Plot the historic prices and see where we are on the curve. That will tell you as they are no different from any other manufactured goods. Generally though most technology inflates less than the general inflation rate and the UK was a very small market with high 'other costs'. Hence windows costing 100 quid a metre square.

All the other stuff, the inverter, cabling, switches, connectors, brackets and bolts will probably go up with inflation, as will labour (though that was pretty cheap in the boom).]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164187#Comment_164187 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164187#Comment_164187 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 16:43:05 +0000 jamesingram http://www.schueco.com/web/uk/architekten/solarstrom_und_waerme/products/photovoltaics/fassadenmodul_prosol_tf.
Cheap 4kW all-in kit price is around £3000-3600 inc. vat
lets say on south facing UK roof it produces 3500kWh/year @ 14p = £490 pa
Pays for itself in 8ish years if you use all available produced energy . System should last 25 years+ ( maybe new inverter required)
This would be outside FITs
4kWp installs via MCS fitter around £6K

I cant see install prices dropping much lower if kepted inside MCS
Panels must have an minium price that there drop to, not sure how close we are to that.

what price do schools/hospital/public building pay for thier electric kwh ?]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164188#Comment_164188 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164188#Comment_164188 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 16:48:42 +0000 SteamyTea Posted By: jamesingramwhat price do schools/hospital/public building pay for thier electric kwh ?About 7p/kWh, changes the economics somewhat, probably why they don't do it much.]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164189#Comment_164189 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164189#Comment_164189 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 17:01:19 +0000 jamesingram
25 years (estimated sys. life) x 3500kWh = 87500kWh x 7p = £6125
then you've got FITs as a bonus currently at 15.44p per kWh generated and 3p for 50% of generated for deemed export. So £14,822.5 if you installed now and they did stick to promise to pay for 25 years :wink:

I should really get some more up on my roof asap :smile:]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164197#Comment_164197 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164197#Comment_164197 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 17:51:06 +0000 SteamyTea Does go back to electricity being too cheap.

Would they allow the 3p/50% export on a commercial installation as they can easily use all they produce?]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164202#Comment_164202 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164202#Comment_164202 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 18:09:49 +0000 DarylP When California introduce their FiTs, all the 'surplus' PV panels languishing in Europe will head over to the US...

Cheers
:smile:]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164210#Comment_164210 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164210#Comment_164210 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 19:19:08 +0000 Ed Davies
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2213548/california-governor-jerry-brown-green-lights-renewable-energy-push

Is something else in the pipeline?]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164221#Comment_164221 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164221#Comment_164221 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 21:00:54 +0000 ted PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164224#Comment_164224 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164224#Comment_164224 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 21:57:43 +0000 Ed Davies Posted By: SteamyTeaPlot the historic prices and see where we are on the curve. That will tell you as they are no different from any other manufactured goods.
Actually, I think they are very different from other manufactured goods because the market, and therefore the price, is so dependent on the whims of a relatively small number of governments. After a steady decline over the years there's been a crash over the last year or so mainly due to the reductions of the German FiT rates.]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164238#Comment_164238 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164238#Comment_164238 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 23:58:01 +0000 wookey
It's a huge and growing market so there will be rewards for those that survive. There are about 15 industry web sites where you can read all about it.

Decent windows (3G timber) are more like £300/m2 BTW. I guess plastic 2G is something like £100/m2]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164294#Comment_164294 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164294#Comment_164294 Fri, 04 Jan 2013 13:42:45 +0000 djh Posted By: Ed DaviesAt £100/m² they're already cheaper than windows by area, I think.
Posted By: wookeyDecent windows (3G timber) are more like £300/m2 BTW. I guess plastic 2G is something like £100/m2

To make the comparison really work, though, you have to add the cost of the wall or roof that is behind the PV panel, since the window also fulfills that function. I don't know what that cost is offhand.]]> PV futures https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164296#Comment_164296 https://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/newforum/comments.php?DiscussionID=9948&Focus=164296#Comment_164296 Fri, 04 Jan 2013 14:17:16 +0000 Ed Davies Posted By: djhTo make the comparison really work, though, you have to add the cost of the wall or roof that is behind the PV panel, since the window also fulfills that function.
The point of the comparison, rather flippant though it was, was to get an idea of the base cost of manufacturing and shipping the panels. It was not comparing the value to the structure of the house.]]>