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Green Building Bible, Fourth Edition
Green Building Bible, fourth edition (both books)
These two books are the perfect starting place to help you get to grips with one of the most vitally important aspects of our society - our homes and living environment.

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    • CommentAuthorGotanewlife
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2013 edited
     
    Posted By: fostertomExcept in sexy new railways.


    Not an option there either in that no-one else would be dumb enough to invest in HS2 so the Government had to do it themselves - obviously this is in line with their borrowing theme because all the fincial benefits the rail ine will bring will more than cover the vast vast expenditure: makes sense to me:wink:
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2013
     
    But you said UK govt wouldn't borrow under any circs. And if
    Posted By: Gotanewlifeall the fincial benefits the rail ine will bring
    are so obvoius, why
    Posted By: Gotanewlifeno-one else would be dumb enough to invest in HS2
    • CommentAuthorEd Davies
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2013 edited
     
    It's entirely possible that the benefits of a bit of infrastructure (a railway, say) go beyond what's reflected in the direct (e.g., ticket) sales so it's possible that it doesn't make sense for a company to invest but does make financial sense for a government which additionally gets to tax those other benefits - e.g, company and personal taxes on employment provided by business activity made possible by the infrastructure, reduce unemployment payments, whatever.

    I've no idea if that really applies to HS2 but it's at least theoretically possible.

    With a power station, on the other hand, electricity is a moderately fungible commodity so direct sales to the grid more-or-less directly reflect the overall value. Government funds would benefit very little in addition to the sales revenue so there's not likely to be additional benefit to a government financing it.

    In some cases government gets additional benefit in the long term - e.g., when a new scheme results in technology development resulting in future business (ideally in the government's country, rather than elsewhere). That, it seems to me, is a good argument for government intervention in previous nuclear programs and currently in renewables. This power station, though, doesn't seem to be likely to lead to any new technology so that argument for support doesn't apply either.
    • CommentAuthorGotanewlife
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2013 edited
     
    The official cost benefit ratio (ie VFM) varies between 1:1.4 and 1:2.5 (that means for every £1 invested the financial benefit is between £1.20 and £2.50. It varies a lot because it is dependent upon economic forecasts and on which bit or bits one is looking at. It includes everything Ed alluded to and more, impact on labour markets, GDP etc. BUT analysis of this type is so much smoke and mirrors, so dependent upon future unproven factors that is just so much balls IMO - furthermore as Ed mentions, the ROI is for the country as a whole, only a very small part of which could be realized into actual cash by another investor.

    At one time I was the Customer Service and Performance Manager for a contract between EDS and the RAF (I became very cynical as a result), then I ended up staffing all the key documents (as gate keeper not the boss!) for a huge new contract between EDS and the MOD - my MA in Change Mgt on the subject concluded that: the Means justifies the Ends. Or in other words it was probably worth lying through one's teeth to get the numbers to add up in order to get the change desired. It was kind of irrelevant who knew it was all utter rubbish.

    They were good times and I learnt a lot. Did I mention that I took early retirement....
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2013 edited
     
    Posted By: Ed Daviesfungible
    My English teacher required: 'Look up, every day, one word that's new to you, and use it'. Thanks! Does this mean there a verb 'To funge'? Or is it like the perversion of 'To leverage'?

    So lo-grade solar heat collected on-site is not fungible i.e. cannot be traded or exported/imported so has no market value?

    And there's no funge is sight that can do anything about the inexorable global decline in EROEI? (upomn which western industrialised society is based?
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2013
     
    Posted By: fostertomIt's not stopping gas, oil, electricity, wood fuel etc going up, since 2003, after long (100yrs in case of oil) stasis.
    http://www.greenbuildingforum.co.uk/forum114/comments.php?DiscussionID=11295&page=1#Item_0
    • CommentAuthorEd Davies
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2013
     
    Quickly double checks that fungible means what he thinks it means…yep, thankfully.

    In the context of a typing problem I saw somebody using the word “fing” the other day; it's what a finger does, apparently.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2013
     
    Fair enough - what coppers do ... what about kippers?
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2013
     
    Posted By: Ed Daviesdy using the word “fing” the other day; it's what a finger does
    Now I am no English snob at all, but some words should not be turned into a verb :wink:
    •  
      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2013
     
    Posted By: SteamyTea
    Posted By: Ed Daviesdy using the word “fing” the other day; it's what a finger does
    Now I am no English snob at all, but some words should not be turned into a verb

    Nah, a 'fing' is the archetypal noun. 'Long of its siblings - enifing and evrifing.
  1.  
    Most articulate of you djh :bigsmile:
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2013
     
    As in 'no f in (object of choice)'
    • CommentAuthorCWatters
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2013 edited
     
    I was reading somewhere that to meet our targets one nuke will barely touch the sides. We will need 10-20.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2013
     
    And so do all the other countries (except those who are doing well by other methods) - do we realise just what such nuclear proliferation, like never before, means? Stupid stupid.
  2.  
    Bit ironic the same week David does a deal with China on Hinkley then China shuts Grangemouth (50/50 JV with INEOS) Maybe a sign of things to come.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013 edited
     
    Don't worry - I have a hunch it still won't happen. The tide has turned - seeing the last bravado of the old-order.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013 edited
     
    http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2013_10_17_what_did_the_1973_oil_embargo_teach_us
    A great all-round state-of-play summary.
    Mentions 'nuclear proliferation', just like I said a few posts back!

    Beats me why RMI gets so little interest or mention on GBF. Maybe because RMI is devoted to making the 'profitable business' path to the future work, while 'greenies' really prefer apocalypse followed by return (for the survivors) to peasant economy. However, few 'deep greenies' on GBF nowadays - I do miss them!
  3.  
    Posted By: fostertomhttp://blog.rmi.org/blog_2013_10_17_what_did_the_1973_oil_embargo_teach_us" rel="nofollow" >http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2013_10_17_what_did_the_1973_oil_embargo_teach_us
    A great all-round state-of-play summary.
    Mentions 'nuclear proliferation', just like I said a few posts back!

    Beats me why RMI gets so little interest or mention on GBF. Maybe because RMI is devoted to making the 'profitable business' path to the future work, while 'greenies' really prefer apocalypse followed by return to peasant economy. However, few 'deep greenies' on GBF nowadays - I do miss them!


    I think part of it is trying to cut through the red tape of embedded systems. You would think a renewable replacement for diesel would be welcomed with open arms but the barriers to entry in this market seem unsurmountable well at least for a small producer.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013 edited
     
    Not inherent or inevitable, so why might that be? See
    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Escaping-Matrix-people-change-world/dp/0977098303/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1382695814&sr=1-1&keywords=escaping+the+matrix
    Not so sure about the proposed remedy; the Transition movement says it better.
    But the diagnosis is mind blowing. Like, we knew it already but here it is in full strength.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013
     
    renewablejohn, can you go back to your post, click Edit, then select html instead of text - makes things much more readable once mastered. You can either quote legibly as described, or have live links to http:\\'s, but not both, unfortunately, in this forum.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013
     
    • CommentAuthorleakyPipes
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013 edited
     
    My big question is, is it more environmentally friendly than the severn barrage?

    Severn barrage is expected to provide 5% of our electricity, versus 7% for the pair of HP-C reactors, but at a similar cost and a lifetime of 100+ years vs 40 tops for a nuclear plant, and of course no decommissioning costs. Nuclear utilisation runs at 80% so they are pretty well matched in terms of absolute energy generation. Nuclear is on all the time, whereas the barrage is subject to the tide.

    Which is the more friendly to the environment?

    I am guessing that the severn barrage has fairly severe but highly localised environmental costs mainly to sealife, new nuclear has more widespread environmental costs. Need to factor in a disaster, say 0.05% chance of a severe nuclear accident per year, whereas a barrage has much better defined and predictable environmental costs??

    REAL science needs to come into this somehow, so that all the options can be quantified and evaluated the best way we can at the moment.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013
     
    There are 437 nuclear power station in operation, so I think the safety record is a bit better than 0.05%/year.
    There is about 15,000 years worth of experience, say 4 major incidences (one minor, ours, and one due to tsunami), so the risk of accident is very low. http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/n/nuclear-power-plant-world-wide.htm
    A barrage will have huge environmental impacts for wildlife and though it may produce 7% of the nations power when measured as a percentage of annual need, it is variable, though this is manageable and not really a problem.
    I am up for both, but we need to be realistic about the costs. I think a barrage would cost more, but may be worth more.
    If wind turbines can be installed for £1/W, and I am sure the hardware can then we could have about 16 GW installed, yielding between 28,000 GWh/year and 56,000 GWh/year depending on location and weather. Probably as useful as a barrage and a lot less environmental damage and very easy to decommission. Even of the generator and blades had to be changed every 20 years, we could be starting this next year with a very quick deployment (if we could just overcome our irrational fear of them).

    I still wonder if this EDF deal will go though, it is not approved yet by the EU.
    • CommentAuthorleakyPipes
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013
     
    Yes, wind is the best option, but unfortunately the nimbys have forced it offshore which I think trebles the cost.

    The best partner for wind is pumped storage, which can surpass 80% efficiency. I don't know how much potential there is left in great britain, but I do know one 200mw scheme in northern ireland that was abandoned due to the 'troubles':

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-15581826
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013 edited
     
    Posted By: leakyPipessay 0.05% chance of a severe nuclear accident per year
    What %age chance of a mad despot arising just once in the next 2000yrs? Bit higher than that, I'd say. Someone prepared to spread genetic catastrophe far and wide (poss in ignorance, during a future dark Age), for perceived advantage?

    Tell me why it's unscientific to factor that in, seeing that at stake cd be survival, or not, of life on earth? Don't say that something that's hard to estimate doesn't exist, in Science.
  4.  
    Depends which barrage scheme you go for whether it is 5% or 20% the upper being at a cost of 30 Bn but that includes the kitchen sink and everything else to make it look more expensive then nuclear. (includes extortionate cost of connecting to grid whereas Hinkley excludes) Also you get added advantages with the barrage of stopping the flooding down the seven valley and Somerset levels. They reckon generation utilisation due to tides would be 85%. Just need to link with a new Thames preventative flood barrier to obtain 24/7 predictable generation.
    • CommentAuthorEd Davies
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013
     
    Posted By: SteamyTeaThere are 437 nuclear power station in operation, so I think the safety record is a bit better than 0.05%/year.
    Yes.

    There is about 15,000 years worth of experience,
    Sounds about right. 437 since 1950 would be 26'000 years experience but the fleet's been built up steadily but not much in the last decade or two.

    say 4 major incidences
    I'd say two major: Chernobyl and Fukushima. So that's 0.013% per year of operation.

    If we go for a substantial proportion of nuclear, say 40 GW, we'd need about 12 plants the size of Hinkley C. If we run them for 40 years that's 12 × 40 × 0.013 = 6.2% risk. Is that acceptable?
    • CommentAuthorleakyPipes
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013 edited
     
    Sorry tom, I don't understand. The chances of a mad despot emerging are surely not dependent on whether hinkley C gets built or not? and therefore can be excluded from any analysis.

    The problem is survivor bias, because we have not had a 'severe' nuclear accident since the windscale fire certainly doesn't mean that this will continue into the future.

    Fukushima was caused by cost cutting in the tsunami defences and having the backup diesels at sea level, other design decisions that may only manifest themselves every few hundred years or so have almost certainly been made in Europe & the US, it's just that they haven't happened yet or hopefully will not happen. Regardless, the risk however small is still there, and this risk must be taken into account when choosing where to invest.

    I am pro-nuclear, but there are risks present whether intentional (ie. cost cutting) or not.
    • CommentAuthorEd Davies
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013
     
    Posted By: leakyPipesSorry tom, I don't understand. The chances of a mad despot emerging are surely not dependent on whether hinkley C gets built or not? and therefore can be excluded from any analysis.
    He's talking about the chances of a mad despot with access to lots of radioactive material. Obviously.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeOct 25th 2013 edited
     
    leakyPipes
    Posted By: leakyPipesI am pro-nuclear
    is saying the risk (the existing stockpile) is already there so no harm in vastly increasing and proliferating around the globe the opportunites for more of same.

    The poster: Roman soldier with drawn sword standing in front of Hinkley: 'if the Romans had nuclear power we'd still be guarding their waste'. Fat chance of that, over the reassuring last 2000yrs.
   
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