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Green Building Bible, Fourth Edition
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General: Elon Musk’s master plan for Tesla is self-driving cars and trucks powered by the sun

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      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 21st 2016 edited
     
    http://qz.com/737962/musks-master-plan-for-tesla-is-self-driving-cars-and-trucks-powered-by-the-sun

    and much more than that - autonomous (off grid) electricity for households and businesses too.

    "... plan is designed to move Tesla from its present, precarious state as a small manufacturer of luxury electric cars to the world’s dominant supplier of clean, autonomous transport, and an electricity source for millions of businesses and homes."

    "... all the pieces ... to build a distributed solar power network: the Powerwall battery and Gigafactory battery plant, the pending acquisition of solar panel installation and financing firm SolarCity, and a fleet of Tesla vehicles with mobile batteries ... building a seamless network of rooftop solar panels with home batteries and vehicles"

    "autopilot mode will come out of beta once it’s approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average"

    "... build a Tesla car-sharing service that invades Uber’s territory ... owners to rent their cars when they’re otherwise idle to help offset the cost of the vehicle so “almost anyone could own a Tesla.”

    Note - this doesn't mean 'yet more cars on the road' (the opposite)
    nor 'more passenger miles' (it may, but capsules in close convoy like trains mean 'less roads').
    • CommentAuthorgravelld
    • CommentTimeJul 21st 2016
     
    Musk is one of the closest things we have to a visionary business leader in these days of bean counters running companies.

    But there's still a long way to go to achieve the above.

    And let's hope government understand and oversee the developments, to assure standardisation in the developing markets to benefit citizens.
    • CommentAuthortony
    • CommentTimeJul 21st 2016
     
    That sounds like Eutopia, not in our world
    • CommentAuthorMarkyP
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016 edited
     
    the Tesla vision doesnt seem too far out of reach to me. The driverless technology is advancing at a very high pace. Fast forward 10 or 20 years, I wonder if the Tesla vision is almost an inevitabaility rather than a eutopian dream?

    Would anyone buy a Tesla when you could get one on demand to pick you up, any time, any place? Maybe this will see a paradigm shift away from aspirational car ownership to super efficient car pooling or even just mini cabs minus the cabbie . Perhaps in 20 years you wont be allowed to drive at all - all the cars on the road will be working to approved alogrithms running chipsets that can out perform any human driver. Traffic and safety could be better when people aren't allowed to take the wheel and going from A to B becomes a service, rather than a driving experience.... and then no one wans to buy a car anymore, cars all do exactly the same thing and the dirving experience is gone. Our grandchildren will look back at sepia tinged video of our era - Clarkson with smoking tyres and fumes billowing from the exhaust of some V8, as we do pictures of horse and cart on cobbled streets.
    • CommentAuthorgravelld
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    Driverless has enormous regulatory, technical and HCI questions still to be answered. I really hope it succeeds (I think it might revolutionise rural living) but I'm also not betting on it...
    • CommentAuthorskyewright
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    Posted By: gravelldI think it might revolutionise rural living

    Would you care to expand on what you mean by that?
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    There is rural, and rural, then there is Island living (even if they have a road bridge now).
    I think I am technically in an urban area, but quarter mile away is rural.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    • CommentAuthorgravelld
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    Posted By: skyewright
    Posted By: gravelldI think it might revolutionise rural living

    Would you care to expand on what you mean by that?
    All sorts of things.

    No more being taxi for the kids when they want to go and see their friends that are too far away for a bike ride.

    Country pubs get more business from people outside their own village.

    Depends on what the eventual regulation is of course.
    • CommentAuthorFlubba
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    I see everyone is leaning toward the utopian side of things rather than dystopian...
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    Ride 2 horses - what a relaxation that wd be, that having to join one club and defend it, which almost everyone does.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    Posted By: fostertomRide 2 horses
    Not if you are allergic to horses.
    I think the carbon footprint of a horse is pretty high too.
    "Time to eat the dog"
    • CommentAuthorgravelld
    • CommentTimeJul 22nd 2016
     
    Posted By: FlubbaI see everyone is leaning toward the utopian side of things rather than dystopian...
    I'd lean toward the more likely messy compromise which means it's generally a step forward but some things don't quite work out.

    A bit like the film Brazil, I love that film.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 23rd 2016
     
    Think of utopia and distopia as two attractors in a chaotic system - a chaotic system that's also close to its crisis point where it suddenly inverts into a different system, or rather same system but at a higher level of complexity. These inversions have always been inherently 'unpredictable' - until this new factor called human consciousness enters the scene - now we can work to strenghten the attractor that we prefer.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 23rd 2016
     
    Posted By: fostertomThink of utopia and distopia as two attractors in a chaotic system - a chaotic system that's also close to its crisis point where it suddenly inverts into a different system, or rather same system but at a higher level of complexity. These inversions have always been inherently 'unpredictable' - until this new factor called human consciousness enters the scene - now we can work to strenghten the attractor that we prefer.
    Mate, that is just pseudo-science gobbledegook.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 23rd 2016
     
    Stripping out the physics jargon (which only qualified technologists are allowed to use), can you see any truth in it?
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 23rd 2016
     
    I would rather strip out the social science language and see if there is any physics left standing :wink:
    • CommentAuthorskyewright
    • CommentTimeJul 23rd 2016
     
    Posted By: SteamyTeaThere is rural, and rural, then there is Island living (even if they have a road bridge now).
    I think I am technically in an urban area, but quarter mile away is rural.

    Yes, there is rural & rural, and the ultra rural is not limited to Scotland (though there is rather a lot of it up here).
    If an on-demand driverless taxi based system becomes the norm in urban and commuter reach rural, what issues does that raise for the more rural areas where low population density and large distances affect the practicalities (not least the economics) of such a system? I'm not saying that's a reason for urban/ruralish areas not to have it, but the knock ons also need to be considered.I'd be delighted to have access to such a system, but I hope that roll out would work out better than, say, the high speed Broadband roll out has so far.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 23rd 2016
     
    You'd just be left with biz as usual and fluffy kittens.
    • CommentAuthorskyewright
    • CommentTimeJul 24th 2016
     
    Posted By: fostertomYou'd just be left with biz as usual

    Not necessarily business as usual, Business as usual in ultra rural areas involves 'normal' cars. If the mass market for "normal" cars disappears (since the majority are using the driverless taxis, and in the interest of safety 'normal' are banned from most roads), it seems more than likely that 'normal' cars would become a small production luxury item?

    And come to think of it, what happens to all the small garages that currently maintain people's 'normal' cars? Do they have to go into the driverless taxi business?

    In this utopian driverless taxi based system, who actually owns and maintains the cars? Who runs the system? Government, mega corps, or hundreds of thousands of small businesses & an Uber style system.

    Posted By: fostertom...and fluffy kittens.

    No idea what that bit is supposed to be about?
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 24th 2016 edited
     
    Sorry skyewright I was replying to
    Posted By: SteamyTeaMate, that is just pseudo-science gobbledegook.
    Posted By: fostertomStripping out the physics jargon (which only qualified technologists are allowed to use), can you see any truth in it?
    Posted By: SteamyTeaI would rather strip out the social science language and see if there is any physics left standing
    Posted By: fostertomYou'd just be left with biz as usual and fluffy kittens.
    • CommentAuthorskyewright
    • CommentTimeJul 24th 2016
     
    Posted By: fostertomSorry skyewright I was replying to...

    Ah I see (well sort of, as I don't think it's really a very useful answer to ST's points either...).
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 24th 2016
     
    Well if I'm to leave out utopia and distopia and am not qualified to talk pseudo-physics, leaves no insight for me to offer, so the world can continue on its ugly and silly way, unenlightened
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 24th 2016
     
    "Business as usual"
    Business has a good track record of innovation and filling niches.
    Governments try and keep thing static and sometimes suppress innovation.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 24th 2016
     
    Posted By: SteamyTea"Business as usual"
    for me has a particular connotation, of pressing on in old ways, oblivious of gathering doom, milking the status quo before it blows up. That's what I meant. And fluffy kittens.
    • CommentAuthorskyewright
    • CommentTimeJul 25th 2016 edited
     
    Posted By: fostertomAnd fluffy kittens.

    Is "bread & circuses" the sort of thing you are meaning?

    PS. I am not anti the driverless taxi based system. Indeed I've often thought (I've even mentioned it on GBF, e.g. the your ideal car topic, IIRC) that if it were possible to just hire a car for a few hours at a reasonable rate as and when required then it would make much more sense for us than owning one. However, since such a low tech thing as that isn't currently possible (it's 40miles to the nearest place we could hire a car) I'm interested to know how the much more sophisticated model is supposed to work?
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 25th 2016 edited
     
    Posted By: skyewrightI'm interested to know how the much more sophisticated model is supposed to work?
    I think the idea is that we swap labour for hardware, so we can can have more vehicles 'sitting and doing nothing'.
    Then, though phone GPS and historic records, they can be moved to the most likely spot to 'pick up passengers' when needed.

    So say they notice that you and your neighbour both use a car on a Sunday to get to the local town, but at different times. They could dedicate one vehicles to you to during those timeslots. If you decide not to use it one day, all they have lost is the marginal cost of getting the vehicles there, and possibly a lost fair somewhere else.
    •  
      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeJul 25th 2016
     
    Well it wd just take 40mi of electric motoring to reach you from Base, so allow for the cost and time of that. Tho, if became widespread, there'd likely be one coming available much closer than that to you just when you want it.
    •  
      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeJul 25th 2016 edited
     
    The time starts to become an irrelevance with full automation though.
    The marginal cost is about 5p/mile, so to put a vehicle 20 miles away for no trip would cost £2, or about a fifth of a drivers direct way.

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