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Green Building Bible, Fourth Edition
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General: 2050 calculator: the limits of arithmetic exposed

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      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeFeb 2nd 2012 edited
     
    http://markbrinkley.blogspot.com worth a look right now - David MacKay responding at length on Mark's blog - click on Comments at bottom of the post - plus contrib by yrs truly.
    See also The God Species, 2 down - another interesting one.
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      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeFeb 3rd 2012
     
    Mark Brinkley has done the classic of talking about 80% reduction in energy use (para 7) and 80% reduction in CO2 emission (para 5). They are not the same thing. It is the mix and quality of supply that is important.
  3.  
    fostertom

    I would love to advise EcoAlby that the technology already exists and is already being installed in Germany and Austria but the price tag is 20k not 4.5K.

    As for MacKay I am pleased he has found time to answer questions from his ivory tower its a pity the questions were not quite as soul searching as the critical ones put forward in the recent open forum run by I think the Guardian which he was very selective which questions he answered.
    • CommentAuthorowlman
    • CommentTimeFeb 3rd 2012
     
    From markbrinkley's blog:-

    "............. Insulation and behaviour change help a bit, but they are basically second order effects — insignificant in the great scheme of things."


    So, apart from the obvious of saving money, perhaps a good enough reason on it's own, and by insulating our homes and making them cosy and less wasteful of energy, seen in the bigger picture we're all wasting our time; according to markbrinkley.
    • CommentAuthorJoiner
    • CommentTimeFeb 3rd 2012 edited
     
    owlman - came on here to post precisely that! :wink:

    And surprised that MB is so surprised that "the 2050 calculator has been tweaked to give the answers that the government wants to hear — i.e. that it's on the right track, and that what it proposes in its Carbon Plan is the best way forward."

    ...because "David Mackay finds himself the Chief Scientist at the Department for Energy and Climate Change, in charge of a project called the 2050 Pathways Calculator which is used to inform the government's Carbon Plan for the years between now and 2050", so surely the calculator (devised by Mackay) will "give the answers that the government wants to hear" BECAUSE the government is following the plan devised by that very same Chief Scientist.

    What have I missed? :confused:
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      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeFeb 3rd 2012
     
    Posted By: SteamyTeaMark Brinkley has done the classic of talking about 80% reduction in energy use (para 7) and 80% reduction in CO2 emission (para 5)
    Not sure he's confused the two - just mentioned both?

    Yes, they're independent. 80% demand reduction is the preferable target, as a matter of health and sanity (vs thoughtless profligacy) for the human race to focus on, with back-up check that CO2 will follow suit adequately.
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      CommentAuthorfostertom
    • CommentTimeFeb 3rd 2012
     
    Posted By: Joinersurprised that MB is so surprised that "the 2050 calculator has been tweaked to give the answers that the government wants to hear
    Tho I'm sure such things happen as a routine of governance, commercial marketing, modern life etc, something tells me this time that such conspiracy is not the case. DMcK says "It hasn't been hijacked" - is he a complete liar? I doubt it.
  8.  
    <blockquote><cite>Posted By: fostertom</cite><blockquote><cite>Posted By: Joiner</cite>surprised that MB is so surprised that "the 2050 calculator has been tweaked to give the answers that the government wants to hear</blockquote>Tho I'm sure such things happen as a routine of governance, commercial marketing, modern life etc, something tells me this time that such conspiracy is not the case. DMcK says "It hasn't been hijacked" - is he a complete liar? I doubt it.</blockquote>

    Not a complete liar but his record in the past does not look good. What really annoys me is that even when he admits the errors in his book he refuses to do a rewrite stating the true facts instead he puts in a little addendum keeping the headline "facts" which Joe Public believe as there not used to searching through addendums to get to the truth.
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      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeFeb 3rd 2012
     
    Posted By: renewablejohnWhat really annoys me is that even when he admits the errors in his book he refuses to do a rewrite stating the true facts instead he puts in a little addendum

    Don't know anything about the situation but I might guess that he's concerned about consistency - having the online edition and the printed edition say the same thing, so people don't get confused. If and when he produces a second edition, I'd certainly expect him to incorporate corrections everywhere.
    • CommentAuthorJoiner
    • CommentTimeFeb 3rd 2012
     
    Good point.
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      CommentAuthorSteamyTea
    • CommentTimeFeb 3rd 2012
     
    Still not sure why this is showing limits of arithmetic though :wink:
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      CommentAuthordjh
    • CommentTimeFeb 7th 2012
     
    Posted By: djhhaving the online edition and the printed edition say the same thing, so people don't get confused.

    Actually, thinking about it a little more, there'd be nothing to stop him highlighting the text online and having corrections pop up on mouse-over.
    • CommentAuthorJoiner
    • CommentTimeFeb 7th 2012
     
    Wonder how many people "read" it like that though? If I'm going through the online edition I use the page-up/page down keys.

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